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2011年11月28日 星期一

(Chapter 6)John. Paulson acknowledged wrong investment to customers. Behind the apology, we see what are the implications?





(第六章)約翰.保爾森向客戶承認投資錯誤。道歉的背後,我們看到甚麼啟示?
John. Paulson acknowledged wrong investment to customers. Behind the apology, we see what are the implications?

博客寫於28/11/2011
Blog written in 28/11/2011

著名對沖基金經理約翰.保爾森,十月份向客戶承認,他對金融市場的趨勢估計錯誤。他說:「我們犯了錯誤」。

Well-known fund manager, John Paulson, admitted in October to its customers, trends in financial markets, he miscalculated. He said: "We made ​​a mistake."


小投資者經常認為,在股票市場裏找生活,只要財政充足,便很容易獲取利潤。


Small investors often think, to find life in the stock market, as long as the financial adequacy, it is easy to obtain profits.


事實是:2011年股市,歐洲出現了債務危機,全世界的投資市場,投資蝕本的人很多,能夠賺錢的人少之又少。


The fact is: the stock market in 2011, Europe experienced a debt crisis, the world's investment markets, investors losing a lot of people; very few people can make money.


大家要明白一個事實,小投資者與基金經理人,彼此都是人類,小投資者會犯的錯誤,基金經理也一樣避免不了。

We have to understand the fact that small investors and fund managers who each other are human, mistakes that small investors, fund managers cannot avoid the same.

投資者的打算是這樣,把資金集中在基金經理人手中,讓他們有充裕資金握在手中,由於金錢數量龐大,賺錢的機會肯定增加。

Investor's intention is that, to concentrate resources in the hands of fund managers so that they have sufficient funds in hand, because a large amount of money, increasing the chances of making money.

按照邏輯推理而說,資金充足,的確是優點,基金經理們,添置先進設備,聘請優質的人才,賺錢的機會一定很高。

Logical reasoning and say, well-funded, indeed advantages, fund managers, purchase advanced equipment, hire quality personnel, must be very high chance of making money.


但殘酷的現實是,大部份基金的表現、都令投資者失望。

But the harsh reality is that most of the fund's performances have disappointed investors.


您是否知道,基金表現令人失望,最主要的原因是甚麼嗎?

Did you know that fund performance is disappointing, the main reason is?

讀者們,包括您自己,您的親戚,同事,朋友們,大家在這一年的投資成績,都能彼此與人分享嗎?

Readers, including you, your relatives, colleagues, friends, everyone in this year's investment results, you can share with each other?

如果您的答案,是不確定的話,那麼,您便要繼續把這篇博客看下去。

If your answer is uncertain, then you will have to continue to read on this blog.

如果邏輯推理的前提是:一名在金融市場博鬥的人,另一名在賭場搏彩的人,彼此的結果都是虧錢。

If the logic of the premise is: fighting against brain of a person in the financial markets, another person in the casino gaming, the results of each other are losing money.

一個整天在金融市場混戰的人,與一個整天在賭場博彩的人,其實是沒有兩樣的。

A day melee of people in the financial markets, and a day in casino gambling, in fact is no different.

我認為,一個沉迷在在賭場賭錢的人,他的生活,與一名整天在金融市場打滾的人,賭徒的生活是比較愉快的。

In my opinion, indulge in a gamble in the casino, his life, and a roll of all people in the financial markets, gambler's life is more pleasant.

賭徒身心疲乏後,回到家裡可以立刻睡覺,等待精神充足後,再回去賭場博殺。

Gamblers physical and mental fatigue, back home to sleep immediately, after waiting for sufficient spirit, striving hard and then go back to the casino.

金融市場,每日24小時,每一時刻,都有市場進行交易。

Financial markets, 24 hours a day, every moment, there are markets for trading.

美國、德國的政府官員所發表的談話、不同地區層面的政治動亂,每一刻都影響金融市場的運作,把金錢放在金融市場的人,怎能放心安睡?

The United States, Germany, the remarks of government officials, political unrest in different parts of levels, each moment affect the operation of financial markets, the money on the financial markets were, how can sleep at ease?

賭徒賺錢後,可以隨時到海外渡假,高度投入金融市場的人,能安心渡假嗎?

Gamblers to make money can always resort to overseas; a high degree of investment in financial markets, people can feel at ease vacation it?

現代資訊發達,金融事務揉合到政治層面上。現在全球事務,互相緊密聯結在一起,金融事務揉合到政治層面上。

Now the world's affairs, each closely linked together, combining the financial affairs to the political level.

投資人每天緊張地注視資訊機,閱讀報章、觀看電視,一天到晚,到互聯網上翻查資料。

Investors watched nervously information machine every day, reading newspapers, watching television, all day long, to retrieve information on the Internet.

每天身體疲乏了,不能安睡,有金錢進帳,還算是值得,如果付出勞力之後,還要賠出金錢,這些日以繼夜的日子,不但影響正常的生活,還會影響職業和前途。

Daily physical fatigue, and cannot sleep, there is money revenue, still is worth, if you pay the labor and will still pay out money around the clock these days, not only affect the normal life, but also affect the career and future.

悠閑的生活,是人們夢寐以求的生活。

Life of leisure is that people dream of living.

您是否希望重新享受,進入金融市場之前,那些休閒的生活?

Do you want to enjoy again, before entering the financial markets, those leisure life?

常常來這裏,探望我吧。

Often came here, to visit me.

我把主題扯遠了,讓我言歸正傳。

I put the theme of the topic; let me get down to business.

小投資者認為,星級基金經理會賺大錢的,他們的業績告訴我們,依靠別人,替自己賺錢,不是正確的投資策略。

Small investors, Star fund managers will make big money, and their performance tells us that relying on others to make money for ourselves, not the right investment strategy.

博客寫到這裏,我想問讀者一個問題:

Blog wrote here, I would like to ask readers a question:

您是否一名基金投資者,另外,自己又進入交易市場,進行每日的金融產品的投機交易?

Are you a fund investor, the other, but it is to enter the market, the daily trading speculative financial products?

如果您的答案兩者皆是的話,那麼您便不是一名精明的投資者。

If your answer is both yes, then you have not a smart investor.

因為在金融市場上,您有可能是基金經理的交易對手。

Because in the financial markets, you may be fund managers counterparty.

他如果賺錢,您有可能輸錢,假如他輸錢的話,您比他輸得更多。

If he is to make money, you may lose money, if he loses money; you get more than he lost.

換言之,您被迫經常站在虧損的一方。這是甚麼理由呢?

In other words, you are often forced to stand in a loss of one. What are the reasons?

因為基金經理被迫,經常面對一個違反常理的限制,他們經常會面對,投資者的認購及贖回的壓力。
Because the fund managers are forced, often face a violation of common sense restrictions, they often face, investor subscription and redemption pressure.

股市低殘的日子,基金投資者被身邊的金融消息、財經的數據,或報章上評論員的善意勸戒,把持不定主意,影響了投資意慾。

The day the stock market low residue, fund investors are close to financial news, financial data, or newspaper commentator on the goodwill of exhortation, uncertain mind control, affecting the investment.

在懼怕招受損失的氣氛下,投資者會選擇贖回基金,於是基金經理被迫沽出股票,以應付投資者的贖回潮。換言之,基金公司,在股票下跌的時候,售出股票。利潤又從何而來?

Move by the fear of loss of atmosphere, investors will choose to redeem, so fund managers are forced to sell shares to meet investor redemptions. In other words, the fund company, in the decline of the stock, sold stock. Profits come from?

相反,股市在熱火朝天的日子裏,投資者蜂湧認購基金或購買股票,基金公司在冀望增加盈利的誘因下,不得不高追股票。

In contrast, the stock market in full swing in the day, investors flock to subscribe for or purchase fund shares, fund companies look to increase the income of incentives, had to chase the stock higher.

在股市每日步步高昇的日子裏,假如基金公司持有大量現金的話,基金經理會被責罵無能。

Rise higher and higher every day in the stock market days, if the fund holds a large amount of cash, the Fund Manager will be condemned incompetence.

因為基金投資者,沒有理由付出管理費用,讓基金公司持有大量現金,而不利用持有的資金,增加收益。

Because fund investors, there is no reason to pay a management fee, so large amounts of cash held by fund companies, rather than the use of funds held, and increase revenue.

理論上,基金經理應該低價買入,高價賣出, 才能賺取利潤。

In theory, the fund manager should buy low, sell high in order to earn profits.

基金公司基於投資者認購和贖回的市場規律,基金經理在金融風暴中,受到現實環境所控制,被迫高價買入股票,而在低價時候賣出,風潮過後,埋單計數,業績那能理想?

Fund based on investor subscription and redemption of the laws of the market, fund managers in the financial turmoil, because of practical controlled, forced to buy high-priced stocks, while selling at low prices when, after wave, pays the bill count, results that can ideal?

下期預告:您是否都具備,精明投資者,必備的條件?

Next Issue:Do you possess, smart investors, the necessary conditions?

以下的資料,是回應讀者要求而搜集的。

您是否想知道,歐洲聯盟的成員國家中,包含那些會員國家?

Do you want to know, the European Union member countries, including those member countries?

The following information is collected to respond to reader requests.

歐洲聯盟和歐元區是兩個不同的國際組織。參加的會員國家也有所不同,下一章節會印出歐元區的會員國家,請您留意。

European Union and the Euro area are two different international organizations. Participating member countries are different; the next chapter will be printed in the euro area member Countries please pay attention.

奥地利 Austria
德國Germany
荷蘭Netherlands
比利時 Belgium
希臘Greece
波蘭Poland
保加利亞 Bulgarian
匈牙利 Hungary
葡萄牙Portugal
塞浦路斯Cyprus
愛爾蘭Ireland
羅馬尼亞Romania
捷克共和國Czech Republic
意大利Italy
斯洛伐克Slovakia
丹麥Denmark
拉脱维亞Latvia
斯洛維尼亞Slovenian
愛沙尼亞Estonia
立陶宛Lithuania
西班牙Spain
芬蘭Finland
盧森堡Luxembourg
瑞典Sweden
法國France
馬耳他Malta
英國Britain

獲承認
候選國
Recognized candidate countries

克羅地亞  
Croatia

馬其頓
Macedonia

土耳其
Turkey

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