(8) Disintegration of the euro, there is the fact that sooner or later, you should prepare as soon as possible, the policy response to large storm?

（第八章）歐元解體，是遲早出現的事實，您應該及早擬定，應對大風暴來臨的策略？

這篇博客寫於07/12/2011
ING上周發表報告，指歐元區一旦瓦解，區內首兩年國內生產總值（GDP）將大幅萎縮12%。

This blog was written in 07/12/2011

The ING Group published a report last week, referring to the collapse of the euro area, once the region's first two years of gross domestic product (GDP) will decline significantly 12%.


目前金融市場惡劣的情況，比對雷曼兄弟破產時，對金融市場的傷害更大。

The current poor financial market conditions, when compared to the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, the Financial markets hurt more.


該報告指出，美國首年經濟將下跌9%，美元將飆升到0.85歐元，油價將瀉至每桶55美元。

The report noted that the first year of the U.S. economy will decline by 9%.
The dollar will rise to 0.85 Euros, and oil prices will crash to $ 55 per barrel.


相反，歐元區邊緣國家，包括西班牙通脹將達雙位數字。

On the contrary, the edge of the Euro area countries, including Spain will reach double-digit inflation.


《華爾街日報》報導，國際炒家索羅斯認為，全球金融體系，目前正處在崩潰的邊緣。

"Wall Street Journal" reported that international speculators George Soros said that Global financial system is now in the brink of collapse.


索羅斯日前出席一公開場合時警告，目前的世界金融體系正處於「自動化解體過程」，可能帶來

相當災難性的後果，各個國家應該盡力阻止這一個趨勢。索羅斯現時認為，在新興市場與發達國

家的分歧已越來越明顯，而他對開發中國家抱持更多信心。


Soros has warned at a public occasion, the current world financial system is in“Self-Reinforcing

Process of Disintegration.” Quite possible disastrous consequences, each country should try to

prevent this trend. Soros now believes that the differences between emerging markets and

developed countries have become increasingly evident, and his contribution to developing

countries holds more confidence.


華倫·愛德華·巴菲特和艾倫·格林斯潘與索羅斯都認為，歐元最後的結果，會被迫解體。


Warren Edward Buffett and Alan Greenspan, they all agreed that the final result the Euro will

be forced disintegration.


你應該預早為即將出現的衝擊作好準備。

You should advance to prepare for the upcoming impact.



一個月之前，雖然歐債危機已經不斷升溫，市場上依然有很多人認為，歐債危機會隨着歐盟領導

層的努力斡旋，而獲得舒緩。


A month ago, although the debt crisis in Europe has been heating up, the market still has a lot of

people think that European debt crisis with the European Union mediation efforts of the

leadership, and to obtain relief.



現在，擺上桌面上，最理想的方案，是由德國提出；德國和歐洲中央銀行認為，要解決歐洲債務

危機，必須從根本着手。

Now, on the table, the best option, raised by Germany; Germany and the European Central

Bank believes that to resolve the debt crisis in Europe must proceed from the fundamental.



德國領袖認為，各成員國必須採取，與德國一致的公共理財政策，只要歐盟各國同意修改歐盟條

約。


German leaders believe that all member states must adopt, consistent with Germany's public

finance policy. As long as the European League countries agreed to amend the EU treaties.



換言之，歐盟各成員國，必須提交每年的財政預算，由歐洲聯盟審查。


In other words, the EU Member States, must submit the annual budget review by the

European Union,



或更直接的說，各會員國的財政預算，首先交給德國來批核，當會員國發生經濟困難時，才能在

財政上，獲得歐洲聯盟及歐洲中央銀行的支持，當各成員國的財政支出，收入回復平衡，歐債危

機便可迎刃而解。


Or, more bluntly, the Member States of the budget, first to Germany, to approve, when

member States are fall into economic difficulties, in order to be financially, the European Union

and the European Central Bank's support.When Member States of the expenditure, revenue to

redress the balance, the debt crisis can be resolved.



可是，要修改歐盟條約是一項廢時耗日的工程，就算各成員國的領袖同意，但各成員國的國會，

是否願意交出財政主導權，將是一連串難以克服的關卡，目前的情況，已經到達，不能容許歐債

危機，拖延超過多一年，所以整個歐元區宣布解體，已是不可逆轉的事實。



However, to modify the EU treaty is a waste of time-consuming on the project.Even the leaders

of the Member States agreed, but the members of Congress, is willing to hand over financial

dominance, it will be difficult to overcome a series of checkpoints.The current situation has been

reached, cannot allow the debt crisis, delayed more than one more year, so that the

disintegration of the entire Euro zone, has become an irreversible fact.



歐元區的政客提出另一個解決歐洲債務的方法，是推行歐洲版的量化寬鬆措施。開動機器印刷鈔

票的，大量供應貨幣的結果，負債國的欠款會不斷增加，貨幣只會不斷貶值。



Eurozone politicians propose another method to solve the debt in Europe is to launch a

European version of quantitative easing measures. Start the machine to print money, the result

of large supply of currency, the country's outstanding debt will continue to increase, and the

currency will continue to depreciate.



量化寬鬆措施，假如落實施行的話，生活在歐洲而持有現金的人，各會員國的人民，害怕國家脫

離歐元區，為了避免手上的貨幣貶值，便會把現金匯出歐洲，歐洲銀行體系內的鈔票，便會越來

越少。



Quantitative easing measures, if to put the words, living in Europe and the people who hold

cash, member States of the people, afraid of leaving the Euro zone countries, in order to avoid

the hands of the currency devaluation, cash will be exported to Europe; the European banking

system's money will be less and less.



隨着歐元的購買力下跌，那些依賴政府支付生活開支的歐洲人，如何生活下去？


With the euro's purchasing power fell, those who rely on the government to pay living expenses

of the Europeans, how to live?


在法國，已經退休的年老長者，生活費中，85%的支出，都是來自政府的資助。


In France, the old retired elderly, living expenses, 85% of the expenditures are funded from the

government.



歐元貶值後，當退休人士生活艱難時，便會向政府施壓，要求救助，政府為保持政治穩定，被迫

出手救助。


Depreciation of the euro, when retired life is hard, they will pressure the government to require

assistance, the government in order to maintain political stability, was forced to bail them out.



那麼，實行緊縮開支，節省得來的金錢，政客受到壓力，最終又要派發給人民，但是，國家的總

負債額，隨着高昂的利息，一路上升，要欠債纍纍的國家，達到收支平衡？真是天方夜譚。誰人

能解決這些周而復始的難題？

So, the implementation of austerity, savings to the money, politicians under pressure, and

ultimately distributed to the people again, but the country's total liabilities, with the high

interest rates, rising up, debt-ridden countries to achieve the balance of payments balance? It is

really a fairy tale. Who can solve these problems again and again?



我認為，解決歐洲債務危機，最後，也是最有可能的辦法是：歐洲中央銀行推行歐洲版量化寬鬆

措施，讓歐元貶值。


In my view, to solve the debt crisis in Europe, finally, is the most likely way is: the European

Central Bank to implement the European version of quantitative easing, the euro depreciated.




不過，要靠貶值減輕債務負擔，規模一定要宏大，貶值幅度至少要令歐元失去一半以上的購買力。



However, to rely on depreciation to reduce the debt burden, the scale must be grand, at least to

make the Euro depreciated by more than half of the loss of purchasing power.



歐洲許多人，都要靠政府支援生活費用，貨幣貶值，必定帶來通貨膨脹，人們生活陷入艱難，又

會把生活艱難的現實，變成為政治壓力，不斷增加壓力之下，政府便要增加開支，最終又回到，

債務危機的起步點。


Europe, many people have to rely on government support for living costs, currency devaluation,

will certainly lead to inflation, people living in a difficult, but will the reality of life is hard,

turned into a political pressure, increasing pressure, the government will have to increase

spending and, eventually, back to the debt crisis of the starting point.



債務發生危機，貨幣貶值，債務纍積起來，於是又發生債務危機，貨幣再貶值，債款便越積越

多，？？？


Debt crisis, currency devaluation, debt accumulated, so the debt crisis took place again, then the

currency devaluation, debt will be piled up,？？？



面對當前的惡劣形勢，歐元區如果真的解體，全球金融市場，肯定掀起滔天巨浪。


Given the current adverse situation, the euro zone if it disintegrated, the global financial

markets, certainly set off a tidal wave.



假如你是金融市場的投資者，不管您手上持有的投資產品，是屬於何種類別，都必須未雨綢繆。



If you are a financial market investors, regardless of your hand holding the investment

products, is what kind of category, must take precautions.



當然，有危機存在，也會提供賺大錢的機會。


Of course, there is a crisis, will also provide the opportunity to make big money.


假如您能提早裝備起來，您不但能反敗為勝，並且說不定，還能擠身成為，千萬富翁之列。


If you can equip up early, you not only win the game, and perhaps, also crowd into millionaires

list.


目前的發生的危機，猶如用紙球，包着火種，各國的政客們，用美麗的花紋紙，將燃燒着的火

種，層層疊疊包封着，用紙包裹的火種，暫時因為缺少氧氣助燃，火勢暫時尚可控制，但是，當

評級公司戳破紙球後，氧氣開始滲進紙球內，包着火種的紙球，瞬即燒成灰燼。



The current crises, like wrapped in paper with fire.

National politicians, with a beautiful pattern paper, the burning fire, with layers of

encapsulation,paper wrapped in fire, a temporary lack of oxygen combustion, and the fire was

still being controlled.However, when rating companies punctured paper ball, the oxygen began

infiltrated the paper balls, paper balls wrapped in fire, was immediately burnt to ashes.



這一波的金融風暴，將會是十分迅猛的，甚至會令人措手不及。


This wave of financial crisis, will be very rapid, even surprising.


「焦頭爛額」與「名成利就」。


"Serious damage" and "Not only with money and celebrity"


「家破人亡」與「大富大貴」兩者之間，互相對換，速戰速決。

"Broken up" and "make a lot of money" between each other on the exchange, a quick fix.



下期預告：
（第九章）精明投資者，是否必須熟悉黃金比率的原理？
Next Issue:
（Chapter 9）Savvy investors, is to be familiar with the principle of the Golden Ratio?



（第十章）運用黃金比率，設定進入市場的價位，退出市場的底線。你有沒有掌握這項技巧？

（Chapter10）The use of Golden Ratio set to enter the market price, out of the market's bottom line. Do you have mastered this technique?