This is a Blog concerning about how to learn Chinese Language effectively

2012年1月13日 星期五

(Chapter 14)European banking industry, will get a candy, but lost a factory? You know CDS?What types of financial products is?

(第十四章)歐洲銀行業,會為得到一粒糖菓,而輸掉一間工廠?您認識CDS?它是甚麼種類的金融產品嗎?

CDS中文稱為:信用違約互換交易 CDS full name call Credit default swap

為了釐清CDS的觀念,我首先舉一個例子:甲先生與乙先生,是兩個不同的個體,甲先生認為,乙先生是一個,駕駛汽車技術水平非常差劣的人,遲早有一天,乙先生,會發生車禍,因此而死亡。

 In order to clarify the concept of CDS, I first give an example: Mr. A and Mr. B are two different individuals, Mr. A believes that Mr. B is a, very poor driving skills of people, sooner or later, Mr. B will a car accident, have died.

甲先生於是找到一間保險公司,替乙先生購買駕駛汽車意外死亡保險,保額是一萬元,每月保費由交易雙方商定,假如乙君每天都生活正常,沒有因為交通意外而死亡,那麼甲先生便要,每月向接受保險的公司,支付保險費用。

 Mr. A then find an insurance company, for Mr. B to buy, driving a car accident death insurance, the amount is $ 10,000, the monthly premium by the two parties agreed that if Mr. B, normal everyday life, not because of traffic accidents and death, then Mr. A will be a month to the insurance company to pay insurance costs.

假如乙君,不幸因為駕駛汽車,意外死亡,那麼保險公司便要向甲君,賠償一萬元。

If Mr. B, unfortunately, because driving a car, accidental death, then the insurance company to Mr. A, compensation $ 10,000.

CDS的概念是這樣的:

 CDS concept is this:

在信用違約互換交易中,違約互換購買者,將定期向違約互換出售者,支付一定費用(稱為信用違約互換點差),

 In the credit default swap, CDS buyers will keep the default swap seller to pay a fee (called a credit default swap spreads),

 而一旦出現違約,違約互換購買者,將有權利將債券,以面值賣給違約互換出售者,購買者從而有效規避,信用風險。

The event of default, default swap buyers will have the right to bonds sold at par default swap sellers, buyers so as to effectively avoid the credit risk.

舉例而言,A借錢給B,並向C購入CDS,對A而言,購買CDS可降低風險。只要B不發生信貸違約事件,C可以定期收取費用,增加收益。但B如果發生違約,C便要向A賠償合約的保額,面對損失。

For example, A lends to B, to C purchase CDS, the A, the purchase of CDS can reduce the risk. B does not occur as long as credit default event, C can be regularly charge and increase revenue. However, if a breach of contract B, C to A compensation agreement will be insured, the face of loss.

 信用違約交換(CDS)指的,是一種可讓「信用提供者(放款人)」移轉信用風險的衍生性金融商品。

 Credit default swap (CDS) refers, may make a "credit providers (lenders)" transfer of credit risk derivatives.

例如,銀行A借錢三億美元給予公司C,銀行A為了降低違約風險,便與銀行B簽訂CDS合約,銀行A向銀行B,支付保險金,雙方商訂,保險金的數額,日後若發生違約情形,銀行B就需要賠償,銀行A的全部損失。違約的風險,便由原本的銀行A轉移給銀行B,所以稱為「信用違約交換」。

 For example, Bank A lend three hundred million U.S. dollars given to companies C, Bank A in order to reduce the risk of default, CDS has signed a contract with Bank B, Bank A to Bank B, to pay insurance premiums, the two sides to work out, the amount of insurance, if the future happen breach of contract case, Bank B will need compensation, bank A's entire loss. Risk of default, then transferred from the original bank A to bank B, so called "credit default swap."

2008年雷曼倒閉所引發金融風暴後,希臘的CDS由2009年3月底的322bps(3.22%)增加到2010年5月時的838bps(8.38%)。

 Lehman in 2008 after the collapse of the financial turmoil, the CDS Greece by the end of March 2009 of 322bps (3.22%) increased in May 2010 when 838bps (8.38%).

 簡單地說,在2010年5月時,100萬的希臘債款,要支付8.38萬,才能移轉手上希臘的信用風險;

Simply said, in May 2010, 100 million of Greek debt, to pay 83 800 in order to transfer the credit risk of the hands of Greece;

但在2009年3月底時,只需要付出3.22萬。

 But at the end of March 2009 only need to pay 32200.

也就是說,在2010年5月時,希臘的信用風險大幅增加。假如,希臘債務問題持續,信用風險持續,則CDS會越來越高,相反,便會越來越低。

 In other words, when in May 2010, Greece's credit risk is significantly increased. If the Greek debt problem persists, continue to credit risk, the CDS will be more and more, on the contrary, will be getting lower and lower.

當讀者有了CDS的觀念後,我們便可以繼續以下的進程。

 When the reader with the concept of CDS,we can continue the following process.

過去數月,有關歐洲債務的消息,無論是正面的,或者是負面的,都瞬息萬變,令到,相隔了一個大西洋的美國交易員,他們原本早上 9時,才會為股市交易作準備,目前,卻要大幅度提前,在凌晨 2時半,開始工作,因為他們須要,密切監察歐洲金融市場,開市後的市場情況。

 Over the past few months, the news on the European debt, whether positive or negative, are constantly changing, so that, a part of a transatlantic American traders, who had 9 am, will prepare for the stock market transactions, the current have a substantial advance in 2:30, to work, because they need to closely monitor the European financial markets after the market opened, the market conditions.

事實上,最近美國股票的表現,的確由歐洲金融市場主導方向。歐洲聯盟領袖,當經濟高峯會議結束後,儘管領袖們在會上達成共識,承諾成立新的財政聯盟,但卻並非意味,歐洲債務危機,會暫告一段落。

 The recent performance of U.S. stocks is indeed led by the direction of European financial markets. European Union leaders, when the summit ended, despite the consensus reached at the conference leaders, committed to the establishment of the new fiscal union, but it does not mean, the debt crisis in Europe, will be ended.

金融市場的交易員,也未能因此每天睡覺多幾小時。首先不去討論,用來救援陷入財政困難國家的金錢,由那裏尋來?

 Financial market traders also failed to sleep so many hours a day. First, do not discuss, to rescue countries in financial difficulties the money from where to find?

 根據歐洲銀行管理局( EBA)的最新資料,「炸彈」已經埋藏於,歐洲區內的金融機構。

 According to the European Banking Authority (EBA) for the latest information, "bomb" has been buried in the European region's financial institutions.

 歐洲區內的銀行,因為持有,大量己經陷入財政困難,國家的主權債務,因而令銀行的資產負債表,應該具備的良好營運質素,不斷下降。

Intra-European bank, as holders of a large number have been in financial difficulties, the country's sovereign debt, and thus the balance sheets of banks, should have a good quality of operation, continues to drop.

根據最新的 EBA數據顯示,由於歐洲銀行陷入財政困難,銀行為了廣開財源,彼此競爭,不斷濫發陷入財政困難,債務堆積如山的國家,擁有的信貸違約掉期( CDS)。

 According to the latest data show that EBA, because European banks in financial difficulties, banks in order to open up financial resources, compete with each other, constantly spamming in financial difficulties, the mountain of national debt, with credit default swaps (CDS).

它們的目的:就是貪圖取得, CDS買家,須要繳交保險金的利益。

Their purpose: to seek to obtain, CDS buyers have to pay insurance benefits.

舉法國國家巴黎銀行為例,銀行發行及買入法國主權 CDS,金額分別為 35億歐元及 20億歐元,換言之,法國國家巴黎銀行,淨額發行法國主權 CDS金額,達 到15億歐元。

 For example, the French National Bank of Paris, the French banks to issue and buy sovereign CDS, respectively amount to € 3.5 billion and 2 billion euros, in other words, the French National Bank of Paris, the French sovereign CDS net issuance amount of 15 billion euros.

假使,法國最終就其主權債務違約,法國國家巴黎銀行便要作出巨額賠償。

 If the French finally on its sovereign debt default, the French Paribas will have to make huge compensation.

其中,最大的核心問題是:法國國家巴黎銀行,銀行本身亦持有大量法國主權債務,所以,金融市場的投資者,絕對有理由,擔心該銀行的業務前景。

 Of which the largest is the core issue: the French Paribas itself holds a lot of French sovereign debt, so financial markets investors have every reason to fear that the bank's business prospects.

而歐洲銀行業,淨額發行 CDS,的主權國名單,包括意大利及西班牙,發行淨額分別達 52億及 15億歐元。

The European banking sector, net issuance CDS, the list of sovereign states, including Italy and Spain, respectively, net issues amounted 5.2 billion and 15 billion euros.

讓我不厭其煩地,再簡單解釋甚麼是 CDS。

I patiently and then briefly explain what is the CDS.

它其實是金融保險產品的一種。

It is a financial and insurance product.

債券的投資者,為求安心持有債券,他可以購買 CDS保險,但是,要定期向發行CDS保險的發行商,支付保險費。假如,所持有的國家主權債券違約,CDS的發行商,便會為買家作出金錢賠償。

Bond investors holding the bond for the sake of peace of mind, he could buy CDS insurance, however, on a regular basis, to issue CDS insurance issuer, to pay insurance premiums. If, some sovereign bonds held by default, CDS issuers, monetary compensation will be made for the buyer.

歐洲銀行業的交易對手風險( counterparty risk)正在升溫,令人憂慮的實情是:根本毋須任何國家出現違約或破產,現時歐洲 CDS保險市場規模之龐大,已經可以,拖累整個世界的經濟。

 European banking counterparty risk (counterparty risk) is heating up, worrying truth is: there is no need of any state of default or bankruptcy, the current insurance market in the European CDS enormous scale, they can already, drag the entire world economy.

 因為根據CDS保險市場的交易要求,銀行每天必須要為 CDS保險及其相關債券的差額,追加孖展金額。

According to requirements of CDS insurance market transactions, the bank every day for the CDS must be the difference between the insurance and related notes, additional margin amount.

只要發行債券的國家,它的債券價格,持續下跌,歐洲區內的銀行,最終會因為被追加孖展金額,再次陷入財政困難。

 As long as the state to issue bonds, which bond prices continued to fall, the European regional banks, will eventually be added because the amount of margin, again in financial difficulties.

 所以穆迪評級機構,最近再將三大法國銀行:降低評級,實在是有充份理據的。

法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas,又名「巴黎國民銀行」)

法國興業銀行(法語:Société Générale,簡稱法興,Euronext: GLE)

法國農業信貸銀行(Crédit Agricole)

Therefore, Moody's rating agency, then the three most recent French Bank: Bank of Paris, France, French bank Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, France, Reducing the rating, it is fully justified.

或許,有人認為:擔心這情況出現是太過多慮。

Perhaps some people think: there is too worried about this situation worry.

但2008年,金融海嘯未發生前,也沒有太多人,會想過 AIG,會因為交易對手風險,最終須要由美國政府託管。

But in 2008, the financial crisis had not occurred, and not many people would be thought of AIG, because of counterparty risk, and ultimately required by the U.S. government custody.

目前,歐洲銀行潛藏的交易對手風險,其實是當年 AIG的翻版,甚至牽連的範圍會更加廣泛。

 Currently, the European banks hidden counterparty risk, AIG is a replica of that year, and even more extensive range will be implicated.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議

 My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

下期我們會回顧歷史。您知道甚麼叫「利差交易」嗎?

The next issue we will look back at history. You know what 「carry trade」is it?

沒有留言: