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2012年1月18日 星期三

(Chapter 16)Who can get from the course of the 「carry trade」interest? Small investors can benefit from them? When the「carry trade」blast, who is the victims?




(第16章)那些人才能從利差交易過程中獲取利益?小投資者能否沾光?當利差交易爆破時,誰人會是受害者?
(一)套息交易的定義:投資者,首先在實行高息貨幣的國家,買入該國的貨幣,然後在實行低息貨幣的國家內,賣出該國的貨幣。
1The definition of carry trade: Investors, first in the implementation of the national currencies of high interest rates, buying the country's currency, then the introduction of low-interest currency countries, sell the country's currency.

投資者,將買入的高息貨幣,存入高息貨幣的國內銀行,賺取其中的利息。
Investors buy higher yielding currencies, high interest money into domestic banks, which earn interest.

投資者,在買賣的過程中,這是賺取利息差價的金融市場的投機行為。
Investors in the sale process, which is earning interest spread, financial market speculation.

所謂套息交易,首先是:把低息貨幣兌換成高息貨幣,把換來的高息貨幣,存入實行高息政策的當地國家銀行或金融機構,最後,把高息貨幣,重新兌換成低息貨幣。

The so-called carry trade, first: put the low-interest currency, converted into high-yielding currencies, then implemented high interest rate currencies into local national banks or financial institutions, and finally, put the high interest rate currency, re-converted into low-interest money.

(二)套息交易的方法有兩種表現。理論層面上的解釋:
2Carry trade performance in two ways. The theoretical level, the explanation:


一是將已經擁有的低息貨幣,直接兌換成高息貨幣,並存入實行高息政策國家的當地銀行或金融機構。

First, put low-interest currencies, direct conversion into high-yielding currencies, and put the money into high-interest bank or financial institution.

二是向低利息貨幣國借款,將借來的貨幣,兌換成高利息貨幣,然後,存入實行高利息的銀行或金融機構。

Second, to borrow money from low-interest currency countries, then, converted into high-interest money, and then, put all the money into the implementation of high-interest bank or financial institution.

(三)套息交易的盈利構成分析:

3The profitability of the carry trade composition analysis:


在外匯市場中,套息交易,除了可以賺取兩種貨幣,彼此差額的利息收入外,更多的,還可以獲得兩個國家貨幣,因為利率浮動,帶來的額外收入。

In the foreign exchange market, the carry trade, in addition to earning two currencies, the difference between interest incomes to each other, the more you can also get two national currencies, as interest rate fluctuations, the additional revenue.

舉例如下:
Examples are as follows:

USD/JPY115.00的價位,投資者付出115.00JPY。買入$1USD
USD / JPY at the 115.00 price that investor’s pay 115.00JPY. To buy $ 1USD.

投資者,把$ 1 USD存入美國銀行或金融機構,一年之後,假如USD/JPY的匯率上升到125.00JPY
Investors, put $ 1 USD into U.S. bank or financial institution, a year later, if the USD / JPY exchange rate to 125.00JPY.

這時候,投資者打算結束套息交易了。
At this time, the investor intends to end the carry trade.

這時候,如果美國的利率是5%,而日本是零利率,那麼,1*5%=0.05。換言之,投資者便會就有1.05美圓了。
At this time, if the U.S. interest rate is 5%, while Japan's zero interest rate, then, 1 * 5% = 0.05. In other words, investors will have a 1.05dollars.

由於一年後$1 USD可以兌換成$125.00JPY
As the year $ 1 USD can be exchanged for $ 125.00JPY;

0.05USD可以兌換成(0.05*125.00=6.2500)=6.2500 JPY
0.05USD can be converted into (0.05 * 125.00 = 6.2500) = 6.2500 JPY.

投資者,最後共擁有131.25JPY
Investors, get the final total of 131.25JPY.

投資者最初的成本是115.00
Investors initially cost is 115.00.


盈利的計算方法如下:(131.25-115.00=16.25JPY)
Profit is calculated as follows: (131.25-115.00 = 16.25JPY)

投資者賺了的利息是:6.25JPY
Investors earned interest is: 6.25JPY.

另外,投資者額外賺得的匯率的波幅是:$10 JPY
In addition, investors earn extra volatility of the exchange rate is: $ 10 JPY.

(四)套息交易的風險分析:
(4) Of the carry trade risk analysis:

不過,這種利差交易是有風險存在的。
However, this carry trade is a risk there.


那麼,套息交易的風險在那裡呢?
So, where the carry trade risk there?

上文分析了,在利差交易過程中,投資者獲得盈利的兩個說法。

The above analysis, the process in the carry trade, investors gets profit of the two claims.
在利息方面來說,波動是不會太大的,因為一個國家的銀行,無論下降利息或者增加利息,都是要經過較長時間的考慮,所以,短時期而言,利息收入減少的因素,不會很大。

In terms of interest rates, volatility is not too much, because a country's banks, regardless of interest rates decline or increase the interest, are considered to be a long-time, so in a short period, the interest income decreased by factors not is significant.

利差交易的風險,主要的就是:高息貨幣比對低息貨幣,匯率的變化。
The risk of carry trades, the main thing is: the high-yielding currencies, low interest rates than on currency exchange rates.

在上述例舉的那個例子中:USD/JPY的匯率,如果在一年以後跌到105.00
In the above examples that the example: USD / JPY exchange rate, if a year later fell to 105.00.

投資者最後能兌換到的JPY是:(1*105.00+0.05*105.00=105.00+5.25=110.25JPY)
Finally, investors can redeem to the JPY is: (1 * 105.00 +0.05 * 105.00 = 105.00 +5.25 = 110.25JPY).

那麼,投資者對比115.00 JPY的成本,便會虧損了4.75JPY
So, investors compare the cost of 115.00JPY will also loss 4.75JPY.


有了上述的分析後,大家應該對套息交易的風險應該有一個基本的認識了。
With the above analysis, all of the carry trade risk, should have a general understanding of the.

那麼,
So, what operation to carry trade, will it not risk?


下一期的話題:


Next topic:

Chapter 17what operation to carry trade, will it not risk?

Uncovered interest arbitrage Do you know  What does it means?
Covered interest arbitrageDo you know  What does it means?


(第17章)套息交易要怎樣營運,才不會出現風險呢?


「非拋補套利」和「拋補套利」是甚麼意思?



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