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2012年3月18日 星期日

(Chapter 24)Hedge funds, in the end investors or speculators?



(第24章)對沖基金公司,到底是投資者抑或是投機者?
Chapter 24Hedge funds, in the end investors or speculators?

各位讀者在閱讀本期文章時,不妨想一想,下列兩條問題:
Dear readers, when you read this issue, we might think about the following two questions:
(1)    對沖基金公司的運作,是金融市場:屢次發生動蕩不安局面的幕後黑手嗎?

(a)      The mode of operation of the hedge fund company is behind the manipulation of financial markets:  The repeated occurrence of the turbulent situation

(2)    對沖基金公司,為甚麼不會受到各個國家的金融當局的監管?

b  Hedge funds, why not subject to the supervision of the financial authorities in each country?

一、對沖基金是指由金融期貨、金融期權等金融衍生工具與金融組織結合後,利用高風險投機為手段,而以盈利為目的金融基金。
A.    Hedge funds, the following three investment projects: financial futures, financial options, financial derivatives, the combination of financial institutions, and then use the high-risk Speculative means to seek profit for the purpose of financial organizations.

二、對沖基金的基本內涵:

B.    The basic meaning of hedge funds

人們把金融期貨金融期權稱為金融衍生工具,它們通常被利用在金融市場中,作為套期保值、規避風
險的手段。

Financial futures and financial options, known as financial derivatives, these so-called investment vehicles, usually investors or speculators using in the financial markets as hedging, risk aversion means.

隨著時間的推移,在金融市場上,部分基金組織,利用金融衍生工具,採取多種以盈利為目的投資策略,這些基金組織便被稱為避險基金
With the progress of time, in the financial markets, part of the fund organization, the use of financial derivatives,

目前,這些所謂避險基金,已經失去對沖風險的內涵;
正好相反,現在人們普遍認為:避險基金,實際是基於採用最新的投資理論,加入基金經理,對政治或經濟趨勢的估量,再摻雜極端複雜的金融市場操作技巧,充分利用各種金融衍生產品的槓桿效用,進行高風險、追求高收益的,投資模式。
Currently, these so-called hedge funds, has lost the connotation of the hedged risk;
On the contrary, now generally accepted that: hedge funds, is actually based on the latest investment theory, to join the fund manager, the measure of political or economic trends,
Fund managers doped with extremely complex financial market operations, to take full advantage of a variety of financial derivatives, the financial leverage for high-risk, and the pursuit of a high-yield investment patterns.
三、對沖基金的起源與發展趨勢:
C. Origin and development trend of hedge funds:

對沖基金的這種投資操作,起源於1950年代初的美國。操作的宗旨,在於利用期貨、期權等金融衍生工具彼此之間的漏洞,進行圖利的操作。基金經理,在投資市場,甄別一些,彼此之間有關聯的,但是不同類別的股票,進行買空、賣空、的投資操作。

This investment operations, originated in the early 1950s, the United States. The purpose of the operation is to use futures, options and other financial derivatives between the loopholes in the operating profit. Fund managers in the investment market, screening, related to each other, but different classes of stock, bought the empty, short selling, and investment operations.
買空:說的是一名投資人,當預計股票價格將會上升時,預先向股票交易機構,使用支付信用保證金的方式,獲得買入股票的權利,然後,在交易雙方議定的一段時限內,借貸股票的一方,在股票市場內,等待股票價格上升到滿意的價位時,斷然賣出股票,從交易過程中,獲取首先買入、然後賣出的差價,達到賺取盈利目標的一種投資方式。
to buy longInvestors, when the expected stock price will rise, advance to the stock exchange institutions, pay credit margin, the right to buy shares, then, within a certain period agreed by the parties to the transaction, the lending stock in stock market, waiting for the stock price rose to a satisfactory price, sell the stock, the transaction process, access to buy and then sell the difference, an investment to make a profit target.
賣空:說的是一名投資人,當預計股票價格將會下跌,預先向股票交易機構,使用存入抵押金的形式,首先借入股票,在交易雙方議定的一段時限內,觀望股票價格的市場變動,當股票價格真正下跌的時機出現,等待股票價格,下跌到比較借入價格更低時,然後,再買入相同數量的股票,把買入的股票,歸還給借出股票者,從中獲取差價的收益。
to sell shortInvestors, when the expected stock price will fall to the stock exchange agencies in advance, use the deposit in the form of mortgage payments, first borrowed shares within a certain period agreed by the parties to the transaction, watching the market movements of stock prices, stock prices really dropped the timing of the emergence of waiting for the stock price fell to a relatively lower purchase price, then buy another the same number of stocks, buy stocks, returned to stock lending, and derive the difference of income.

換言之,是容許投資者,在沒有充足資金的情況下,或者,根本沒有擁有股票的情況下,投資者只是按照證券交易所的規定,存入指定數目的信用保證金或者根據股票交易所規定,存入指定數目的抵押按金;這是一種讓投資者,廣泛採納的投資方式。

In other words, is to allow the investor does not have sufficient funds, or did not have stock, investors only in accordance with the provisions of the Stock Exchange, deposited into a specified number of credit bond or stock exchange regulations, deposit into a specified number of security deposits; this is a way for investors, widespread adoption of the investment.

雖然,這是一種投機方式,但是,這是一種既有利於提高股市的交投量,同時,也會令到投資者,可以獲取收益;不過,投資人將要面臨很大的潛在風險。

Although this is a speculative way, but this is a help to improve the trading volume of the stock market, it would also make investors can earn money; however, investors will face a lot of potential risks.

這種買入和賣出股票的操作技巧,目的是可以讓投資者的盈利與虧損的風險,互相對沖。這種金融操作技巧,在一定程度上,的確可以規避及化解,單一投機者,面臨金錢投資的風險。

Operating skills, buying and selling stocks allows the investor's profit and loss risk, mutual hedge. This financial operations skills, to a certain extent, indeed can be circumvented and to resolve a single speculator, facing the risk of the investment of money.

四、金融市場現時的避險基金,最常使用的投資策略,有多達20多種類。
其操作的手法,主要可以分為以下五個類別:
D.  Financial markets, hedge funds, the most commonly used investment strategy, as many as over 20 species.
The way of its operation, can be divided into the following five categories:
1.同時買入及沽空股票,可以是單邊長期持有股票倉或者長期沽出股票;
1 by simultaneously buying and short selling the stock, which can be unilateral long-term holders of stock positions or long-term sell stock;
2.同時持續買入股價趨勢下跌的股票以及沽出股價趨勢升高的股票;
2 While continuing to buy the shares of the stock trend is down and sell the stock increased by the share price trend;

3.可換股套戥,即買入價格偏低的可換股債券,同時沽空股票的正股,反之亦然;
3 convertible arbitrage, i.e. the low purchase price of the convertible bonds, the underlying shares to short sell the stock at the same time, and vice versa;

4.從環球經濟的宏觀角度,分析各地經濟金融體系、按照政治、經濟事件的現實發展,設定主要的趨勢性買、賣策略;
4From the perspective of the global economy, the analysis of local economic and financial system, in accordance with the reality of the political, economic events, set a major trend trading strategies;

5.管理期貨的買進以及賣出,亦即是:持有各種不同類別的衍生工具產品。
5 managed futures bought and sold, that is: holding various categories of derivative products.
投資者圍繞討論「對沖基金」的二個核心問題是:
Investors around the discussion of "hedge fund" the two core issues are:
1 對沖基金究竟是屬於甚麼類別的公司?
1 Hedge funds actually are what types of companies?
2 對沖基金公司的運作,會不會導致高風險的投資?
2 The operation of hedge funds, will result in high-risk investment?
五、各國政府,要不要向對沖基金公司加強監管,以及應該採取何種手段,加強監管?
E. Governments, or to the hedge fund companies to strengthen supervision, and what means should be taken to strengthen supervision?
筆者的論述,可以分為三部分:
I discussed can be divided into three parts:

第一是:介紹對沖基金公司運作的概況,揭開對沖基金公司神秘的面紗;
The first is: to introduce an overview of the operation of the hedge fund company opened a hedge fund company veil of mystery;
第二是:嘗試分析,對沖基金公司,是否一定導致金融風險;對沖基金公司,有沒有導致了1997年的亞洲金融危機;
The second is: Try to analyze hedge fund Company, necessarily lead to financial risks; hedge Fund Company, whether it led to the 1997 Asian financial crisis?

第三是:提出討論,各國的政府金融監管機構,應否要向對沖基金公司的運作,加強監管的力度。
The third is: discussed, the national government financial regulatory bodies, should to the hedge fund the company's operations, strengthen the supervision efforts.
六、對沖基金公司的概況
F. Overview of a hedge fund company
1
、對沖基金公司的定義和特點:
1, the definition and characteristics of hedge funds:
90年代中期,雖然對沖基金的一些相關術語,早已進入金融市場,但是,對沖基金公司,卻真的是聞所未聞。那些時候,有這樣一些金融術語出現了。
Mid-1990s, although some of the terminology of hedge funds, already into the financial markets, hedge funds, but is really unheard of. Those times when such financial terms.
例如:「對沖」、「基金」、套利、「共同基金」等條目,卻還是沒有「對沖基金公司」的條目說明。
Such as: "hedge" , " fund " ," uncovered arbitrage ", " mutual funds "and other terms, but no the term of the hedge fund company.
2、其實,要說清楚「對沖基金公司」究竟是甚麼性質的公司,並非是一件容易的事情。
2In fact, to say clearly hedge funds what is the nature of the company is not an easy thing.
「對沖基金」有許多別緻的名稱,例如:「套頭基金」、「拋補套利基金」以及「避險基金」。
"Hedge funds" have many unique names, for example: "hedge funds", "uncovered arbitrage funds" and "risk-averse fund. "

事實上,自從1990年代以來,全世界的金融市場,對於「對沖基金」的理解,也頗為混淆與及沒有一致性的結論。
In fact, since the 1990s, the world's financial markets, understanding of the "hedge fund" is quite confusing and there is no consistent conclusion.
七、筆者嘗試列舉一些,最具權威的金融機構或個別人仕,對於「對沖基金」所訂立的定義如下:
G. I try to enumerate some of the most authoritative financial institution or an individual person, made ​​for "hedge fund" is defined as follows:

第一:國際貨幣基金組織的定義是:「對沖基金,是屬於私人的投資組合,經常都是離岸設立,以充分迴避,要向設立公司的所屬國家,應該繳納的稅款以及被所屬國家的金融機構,進行管制」。
First: the IMF is defined as: "Hedge funds are private investment portfolio, often offshore are set up to evade the full, to the establishment of the company's home country, should pay the tax, as well as the country financial institutions, regulatory restrictions. "

第二:美國第一家提供對沖基金商業資料的機構(Mar/Hedge)的定義是:「對沖基金公司是一間,採取獎勵性佣金制度的公司,基金公司通常抽取總投資額的15—25%的金錢,作為行政費用;並且,最低限度要滿足,下列各個標準中的其中一個」:
The second: the first U.S. hedge funds, commercial information agencies (Mar / Hedge,) is defined as: "The fund company is a take incentive commission system companies, fund companies typically taking 15-25% of the total amount of investment money, as administrative costs; and the minimum to meet one of the following criteria:

1:基金投資於多種不同類別的資產;
2:投資的項目,一定利用杠杆效應;
3:基金會在投資組合內,運用各種套利策略。
1: The Fund invests in a variety of different classes of assets;
2: the investment project, be sure to use the leverage effect;
3: The Foundation investment portfolio, using a variety of arbitrage strategies. "

第三:美國另一家對沖基金研究機構HFR將對沖基金概括為:
Third: HFR of the United States, another hedge fund research institutions, and hedge funds summarized as:

對沖基金公司,是一間採取私人投資的合夥公司,以離岸基金的形式設立,按照公司的業績,提取佣金。基金公司會運用不同的投資策略,以賺取利潤為目標。
The hedge fund company is a taking of private investment partnership, set up in the form of offshore funds, according to the company's performance, extraction of the commission. The fund company will use different investment strategies to make a profit as the goal.

第四:著名的美國先鋒對沖基金國際顧問公司VHFA的定義是:
Fourth: the definition of the famous American pioneer in hedge funds, international consultancy firms VHFA:
採取私人合夥方式組成公司或有限責任公司,基金公司,主要投資於:金融市場裏,已經公開發行的證券或金融衍生產品。
Take private partnership to form a corporation or limited liability companies, fund companies to invest in: the financial markets, public offering of securities or financial derivatives.

第五:美聯儲主席格林斯潘,曾經向美國國會就長期資本管理公司(LTCM)問題作證時,給出了一個對於「對沖基金公司」的間接定義:
Fifth: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told the U.S. Congress to testify on the Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), when given an indirect definition of "hedge funds":

格林斯潘說:LTCM是一家對沖基金公司,或者可以說,它是一家:通過將客戶限定於少數、客戶成員投資經驗十分老練、而且,投資者是富裕的個體組織;公司經過精心安排,避開國家金融監管機構的管制;基金公司在金融市場,追求大量金融產品的高風險投資和交易,是一間採取高回報率的共同基金。

Greenspan said: LTCM was a hedge fund company, or to say, it is a: by the customer is limited to a small number of very mature customer members of the investment experience, and that investors are wealthy individual organization; carefully arranged to avoid open the control of the country's financial regulatory agencies; fund companies in the financial markets, the pursuit of high-risk investments and transactions of a large number of financial products, with a high rate of return on mutual funds.
根據以上所述的定義,尤其是格林斯潘的間接定義,我們認為,對沖基金並非天外來客,所謂對沖基金公司,實質不外乎是一種共同基金,只不過基金的組成,投資的安排,都較為特殊。投資者:包括私人投資者和機構投資者都比較少,由筆者舉出一個形象性的比喻,它就像是:富有人家的投資俱樂部,互相比較之下,普通共同基金便是大眾投資人仕的投資俱樂部
According to the above definition, especially the indirect definition of Greenspan, we believe that hedge funds are not "extra-terrestrial", the so-called hedge fund company, the real is nothing more than a mutual fund, except that the composition of the Fund's investment arrangements all the more special. Investors: including private investors and institutional investors than less, by the author cited the analogy of an image, it's like: "rich people's investment club", to each other compared to ordinary mutual fund is the "public investment person's investment club".

由於對沖基金特殊的特殊組合安排,使得對沖基金公司,能夠避開金融監管機構的法律約制,公司不受監管之餘,更加可以,不受約束地,利用一切金融投資工具,獲取高額金錢的投資利潤,並且衍化出,對沖基金與普通的共同基金的諸多區別。

Due to the particular combination of hedge funds, special arrangements, making the hedge fund company can avoid the financial regulators about the legal system, the company is not a part of the regulatory, more can, and unfettered use of all financial investment tools, access to high money return on investment, and evolved into a lot of difference between hedge funds and ordinary mutual funds.

有一些金融專家認為:對沖基金經常出現虧損的關鍵是:公司採用杠杆方式投資,並且投資於具有高度風險的金融衍生產品。
Some financial experts believe that: hedge funds are often the key to a loss: the company with a leveraged investment, and invest in financial derivative products with a high degree of risk.
但是,實際上,正如IMF所指出的,其實有一些投資者或投機者,也有份參與,與對沖基金完全相同的投資操作,例如:商業銀行和投資銀行的自營業務部門,銀行長時期持有金融市場各種類別的股票、買賣衍生金融產品,銀行也採取與對沖基金相同的方式,變動它們的資產組合。
But, in fact, as the IMF pointed out that, in fact, some investors or speculators, who have participated in exactly the same with hedge funds, investment operations, such as: self-employed business departments of commercial banks and investment banks, banks for a long time have the stock of the various categories of financial markets, trading of derivative products, banks have also taken the same way as with hedge funds, to deal with the bank's asset portfolio.

許多共同基金,養老基金,保險公司和大學捐款基金,都參與了與對沖基金相同的投資操作,並且名列在對沖基金的最重要投資者名冊之內。
Many mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies and university endowment funds, are involved in the same with hedge funds, investment operations, and is ranked within the most important hedge fund investors roster.

此外,投資者,也能夠從一個微觀的銀行體系中,可以觀察到,商業銀行的總資產和債務之間,竟然是銀行固有資本的好幾倍,從這個意義來分析,商業銀行的營運,也毫不例外地運用杠杆原理來操作。
In addition, investors can also be from a micro-banking system, can be observed between total assets and liabilities of commercial banks, turned out to be several times of the natural capital of the bank, in this sense to analyze the operation of commercial banks, also without exception the use of leverage to operate.
(一)美國政府對參與對沖基金的投資者,有嚴格的資格限制:
根據美國證券法例的規定:
1假如投資者用個人名義參加,投資者,最近兩年內,個人年收入至少在20萬美元以上;
2如果用家庭名義參加,夫婦倆人,最近兩年的收入,至少在30萬美元以上;
3投資者如果以機構名義參加,機構的淨資產價值,至少在100萬美元以上。
1The U.S. government to participate in the hedge fund investors, there are strict eligibility restrictions:
According to the provisions of U.S. securities laws:
1 if the investor with a personal capacity, investors, within the last two years, personal income, at least in more than $ 200,000;
2 If the name of the household to participate, the couple then the income in the last two years, at least in more than $ 300,000;
3 If the name of the institutional investors to participate in the net asset value of the institution, at least in the more than $ 1,000,000.

1996年美國政府作出新的規定:對沖基金參加者,會由100人擴大到500人。
參加者的條件是:投資者個人,必須擁有價值500萬美元以上的投資證券資產。而一般的共同基金,沒有這樣的限制。 In 1996, the U.S. government to make new rules: hedge funds, participants will expand by 100 to 500 people.
The participants are: individual investors, investment securities must have a value of $ 5,000,000 or more assets. Mutual funds in general, there is no such restriction.

(二)對沖基金公司的營運操作:
對沖基金公司的操作,不會受到政府監管限制,投資組合和交易方式,也沒有受到限制很,基金的主要合夥人和管理者,可以自由、靈活地運用各種投資技術,包括買空、賣空。買入以及賣出衍生工具產品或進行杠杆式交易。一般的共同基金,在營運的操作上,受到的限制,比較多樣化。
2Hedge fund operation of the company operations:
The operation of hedge funds, will not be subject to government regulatory restrictions, portfolio transactions, nor to be that restrictive, the Fund's main partners and managers are free to flexibility in the use of a variety of investment techniques, including the purchase of empty, short . Buy and sell derivatives products or leveraged transactions. Mutual funds in general, in the operation of the operating restrictions imposed, are more diverse.

(三)對沖基金公司的監管:
目前對沖基金公司不受政府監管。美國1933年證券法、1934年證券交易法和1940年的投資公司法曾規定:不足100個投資者的投資機構,在成立時:不需要向美國證券管理委員會等金融主管部門登記,並且可以避免受到管制。
3Supervision of hedge funds:
Hedge fund companies are not subject to government regulation. United States Securities Act of 1933, the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 and the Investment Company Act of 1940 provides that: less than 100 investors, investment institutions, the establishment of: No registered to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and other financial authorities, and avoid subject to control.

對沖基金公司,不受政府監管的原因是:投資者,主要是人數十分之少,投資者的投資經驗豐富,而投資者又屬於富裕的個體,自我保護能力較強。
相比之下,政府對共同基金的監管就比較嚴格,這主要是因為投資者是大眾人仕,許多投資者,都缺乏對投資市場的瞭解;出於避免大眾風險、保護弱小者以及保證社會安全的考慮,政府於是實行嚴格監管。

The hedge fund, not subject to government regulation because: investors, mainly very small number of participants, and investors of investment experience, and investors are wealthy individuals, self-protection ability.
In contrast, government regulation of mutual funds more stringent, this is mainly because the investor is a public person, many investors, a lack of understanding of the investment market; out to avoid public risk, protect the weak, and to ensure social safety considerations, the government is so strict supervision.

(四)對沖基金公司的籌資方式:
美國私募證券法規定:對沖基金公司,在招募顧客時,不得利用任何傳媒做廣告;投資者主要通過下述四種方式參加對沖公司:
4Way of raising funds of hedge funds:
The United States Private Securities Act: hedge fund company in the recruitment of customer, shall not use any mass media advertising; investors participate in the hedging companies, mainly through the following four ways:
1 依據在上流社會獲得的所謂投資可靠消息
2 直接認識某個特定對沖基金的管理者;
3 通過個別的其他基金推介;
4 由投資銀行、證券仲介公司或投資諮詢公司的特別介紹。
1 According to reliable sources of the so-called investment in polite society;
2 Direct knowledge of a particular hedge fund managers;
3 Recommend other funds of the individual;
4 By investment banks, securities broker or investment advisory firm special presentation.

(五)
1 「對沖」是一種甚麼性質的概念?
2 對沖基金經理為什麼要為「投資」進行「對沖」的操作?
5
1 "Hedging" is actually what the nature of the concept?2 Why hedge fund managers want to "invest" in the operation of "hedging"?

請讓筆者,嘗試用最簡單的說話解釋「對沖」的概念:
Please let the author attempts to explain the concept of "hedging" the easiest to speak:
投資者,在期貨市場購入某一類「商品」的交易合約,商品的種類、數量與現貨市場「商品」的種類、數量相同;投資者使用購買回來的期貨「商品」交易合約,用來抵消現貨「商品」市場交易中,存在的價格風險。
Investors purchased the contracts of a certain type of "commodity" trading in the futures market, the type of goods, the number of spot market "commodity" type, the same number; investors to buy back the futures commodity exchange contracts used to offset the "cash" commodity market transactions, there is price risk.

最早期的對沖概念,為的是真正的保值,多數使用於「農產品市場」和「外匯市場」。
The earliest hedge concept is a real hedge against inflation, mostly used in the agricultural market and the foreign exchange market.

(六)為甚麼會有「套期保值者」的存在?
6Why have "hedgers" exist?
所謂「套期保值者」,一般都是實際生產者和消費者,或擁有商品將會出售的人,或者是日後需要購進商品的人,或者是擁有債權的人,日後將要收取債款的人,或者是負債人,而將來要償還債務的人等等。
Hedgers are the actual producers and consumers, or possession of the goods will be sold, or future purchases of commodities, or the person has a claim to receive dividend in future, or debt, and will have to repay the debt, and so on.
這一些人,都會面臨著,商品價格或者貨幣價格變動,而會遭受損失的風險。「對沖」其實是為回避風險而做的一種金融操作,目的是把暴露的風險:用期貨或期權等形式,把風險轉移出去金融市場,從而使自己的資產組合中,不須要承受風險。
讓筆者嘗試舉例如下:
Please let the author try following are examples:
有一家法國出口商,計劃在三個月後,將會要出口一批汽車到美國,出口商預期將收到100萬美元的貨款,但是,出口商是不會知道,三個月以後,美元兌歐羅的匯率,在三個月之後,會是上升或是下跌?如果美元下跌了,出口商將會蒙受損失。為了避免風險,出口商可以採取的舉措,便是在期貨市場上,賣空相同數額的美元(三個月以後交收款項),出口商經過「鎖定匯率」的舉措,從而避免,由於匯率的不確定性所帶來的風險。

A French exporter, plans will be exported after three months the number of cars to the United States, exporters are expected to receive $ 1,000,000 of the purchase price, however, exporters do not know, three months later, the U.S. dollar exchange rate against the euro, after three months, rose or fell? If the falling dollar, the exporters will suffer losses. Order to avoid risks, exporters can take the initiative is in the futures market, short selling the same amount of dollars (after three months of settlement payments), exporters after the "lock in exchange rates," the initiative, so as to avoid, due to exchange rate the uncertainty of the risks.
所謂「對沖」意思是:投資者,既可以「賣空」,又可以「買空」。
The so-called "hedge" means: investors, both "short selling, they can buy empty.

如果你已經擁有某一種特定的「資產」,並且準備將來把這一種「資產」賣掉,你就可以使用「賣空」的舉措,用來為這一種特定的資產,鎖定價格。
If you have a specific type of "assets", and is prepared in the future this kind of "assets" to sell, you can use the "short selling" initiatives, and used for a specific asset, to lock in prices.
如果投資者,將來要買入某一種特定的「資產」,不過,投資者擔心這種「資產」會漲價,投資者就可以利用「買空」的舉措,買入這一種特定「資產」的期貨。
Investors going to buy a certain kind of "assets", but investors worried about this "asset" prices will rise, investors can take advantage of "buy empty" initiative, to buy this kind of specific "assets" futures.

這裡所討論的問題中心點,是「期貨」購買時的價格,與將來到期日沽出的價格,彼此之間的差異;所以交易雙方,都不會真正「交收」這種「資產」;所以「交收」的實質,就只是期貨價格與期貨到期日之時的價格,實際上是一買、一賣,彼此之間價格的差異。
The center point of the issues discussed here, the purchase of "futures" price, selling price and the future maturity, the difference between each other; so both parties are not really "settlement" this "asset"; Therefore, when the price of the "settlement" of the essence, only the futures price and the futures maturity, the difference between each other prices.
從這個意義層面上來說,投資者對該特定「資產」的買入和賣出的行為,這就是「買空」與「賣空」的概念。
This significance level, investors in the buying and selling behavior of certain "assets", which is "buy empty" and "short selling" the concept.

(七)那麼,什麼是對沖基金的「對沖」行為?
7So, what is the behavior of hedge funds "hedge"?

對沖基金的鼻祖Jones是這樣說的:
The hedge fund originator Jones had this to say:

Jones這樣說:「對沖」行為,是一種金融市場操作之中,屬於中性的戰略;通過對價值被低估的證券,做「多頭」操作或者做「空頭」的操作,可以有效地,將投資股票的資本,放大倍數,並且,能夠利用有限的資金,可以進行大量的「買入」或者「賣出」的操作。
Jones said: "hedging" behavior, the operation of a financial market is a neutral strategy; undervalued securities, to do the "long" operation or "short" action can be effective, will invest stock of capital, magnification, and able to use the limited funds, a lot of "buy" or "sell" operation.

金融市場上,最初被廣泛運用的兩種投資工具是:
「賣空」操作以及「杠杆效應」操作。
Financial markets, initially two kinds of investment tools are widely used:
The operation of "short selling" and "leverage effect" operation.
Jones將這兩種投資工具,組合在一起;創立了一個嶄新的「投資系統」。
Jones將股票投資中的風險分為兩類:
Jones put the above two kinds of investment tools, combined together; the creation of a new investment system.
Jones in turn purchased the stock, the possible risks, subdivided into two categories:

1來自個別股票選擇的風險;
2來自整個金融市場的風險評估。
1 From the risk of individual stock options;2 From the entire financial market risk assessment.
Jones試圖將這兩種風險分隔開。
Jones trying to separate these two risk.
Jones將一部分資產,用來保護被「買空」的股票;並憑藉此一種操作,作為「沖銷」所購入的股票,一旦遇到股票價格下跌時,所須要承受的風險。
Jones will be part of the assets used to protect the "empty buy" the stock; an operation, and by virtue of this as a" write off "the purchase of the stock, once the stock prices, have to bear risk.
Jones儘量將市場風險,控制到可以承受風險的範圍內,同時,又利用杠杆效應,用來放大,從個別股票的正確選擇中,所獲得的利潤。
Jones also try to stock market risk, the control that can bear the risk within the same time, the leverage effect, used to amplify the correct choice of the individual stocks, the profits.
Jones所採取的策略是:買進特定的股票作「多頭」操作,再「賣空」另外一些股票。
即是說:Jones買入那些價值被低估的股票,並「賣空」那些價值被高估的股票。

Jones to take the strategy is: buy a particular stock for a "long" operation, then short selling some stocks.
In other words: Jones bought the stock price is undervalued, and "short selling" stock was overvalued.

Jones覺得:實施這種操作,操作投資的人就可以期望,不論市場的行情是上升或者是下跌,都可以獲得利潤。
Jones think: the implementation of this operation, operating investments can expect, regardless of market prices rise or fall, can make a profit.

因此,Jones基金的投資組合,會被分割成性質相反的兩部分:
Therefore, Jones, the Fund's investment portfolio will be divided into two parts of opposite nature:
理論上來說:有一部分股票,每當股票市場,股票的價格上升時,基金公司可以獲得利潤;

In theory: part of the stock whenever the stock market, stock prices rise, the fund can make a profit;
理論上來說:另外一部分股票,每當股票市場,股票的價格下跌時,基金公司也可以獲得利潤。
In theory: another part of the stock whenever the stock market, stock prices fell, the fund companies can profit.
這就是「對沖基金公司」的「對沖」營運操作。
This is the hedge fund company's so-called "hedge" trading operations.

儘管Jones覺得:正確選擇股票,比較看準市場趨勢更為重要,Jones還是根據個人對於金融市場觀察行情的預測,作為增加或減少股票的投資組合。
Although Jones feel: the correct choice of stock, relatively more important sights on market trends, Jones, based on personal, financial markets observed market forecast, as the increase or decrease the stock portfolio.

當股票市場,股票的格價,長期走勢是上漲的時候,對沖基金公司的投資,總的說來都能夠獲得利潤。
When the stock market, stock prices of long-term trend is up, the hedge fund's investment in general are able to make a profit.
(八)對沖基金公司,加入了金融衍生工具的操作以後,舉例來說加入了「期權」的運作,情況會變得怎麼樣?
8Hedge fund Company, joined the operation of financial derivatives, for example joined the operation of the "options", the situation becomes how well?
筆者不妨再舉一個例子。
I wish to cite an example.

讓筆者嘗試舉出一例子來說明,假如:A公司股票的現價為$150元,倘若基金經理估計,一個月之後,股票價格,可以升值到$170元。
傳統的做法是:投資者會付出$150元,購買A公司的股票,當A公司股票價格到達$170元,投資者把股票賣出,獲得$20元的利潤,那麼,利潤與成本的比例為13.3%

I try to give an example to illustrate: A company's stock price is $ 150, if the fund manager estimated a month later, the stock price to rise in value to $ 170.
The traditional approach is: investors will pay $ 150, the purchase of the stock of Company A, when A company's stock price to reach $ 170 investors to sell the stock for a profit of $ 20, then the profit and cost ratio of 13.3% .

但是,假如投資者使用「期權」操作,投資者可以使用每股$5元的保證金,買入A公司,市場價格為$150元的認購期權,如果一個月後,A公司的股價上升到$170元,投資者每一股的股票,便可以賺取$20元,投資者減去保證金所付出的$5元,便可以淨賺$15元(為簡便計算,沒有計算手續費)。
However, if investors use the "Options" operation, investors can use the $ 5 per share, margin, and the purchase of Company A, the market price of $ 150 call options, a month later, the company's A shares rose to $ 170investors for each share of stock, they can earn $ 20, investors minus the margin paid $ 5 for a net profit of $ 15 (for simplicity, not counting fees).

換言之,投資者以每股5元的成本,便可以順利獲得利潤$15元;利潤與成本的比率為300%。如果投資者使用$150元去進行期權投資,他所賺得的金額不是$20元,而是驚人的$4500元了。

In other words, investors with a cost of $ 5 per share will be able to secure a profit of $ 15; profit and cost ratio of 300%.If the investor uses $ 150 to options investment, the amount he earned, not $ 20, but the amazing $ 4500.
由此可以見到,如果適當地運用衍生工具,只需以較低的成本,就可以獲取更多的利潤,就像物理學中的杠杆原理,在遠離支點的作用點,以較小的力度,能夠舉起十分靠近支點的沉重物件。
It can be seen, the proper use of derivatives, just at a lower cost, you can make more profit, like the physics of leverage, the role away from the fulcrum point, a smaller efforts to be able to lift heavy objects very close to the fulcrum.

金融學家將之稱為杠杆效應。這種情況下,假如說不是為了避險,而純粹是作市場的方向,並且運用杠杆來進行賭注,一旦做對了,當然能獲暴利,不過風險也極大,一旦失手,損失也呈杠杆效應放大。
Financial experts will be referred to as leverage. In this case, if not for hedging, but purely for the direction of the market, and use leverage to bet, once done, of course, the profiteer, but the risk significantly, if missed, the loss was the leverage effect amplification.

舉例來說,美國長期資本管理基金(LTCM),以公司的自有資金22億美元作為抵押,向金融機構貸款1250億美元。
For example, Long Term Capital Management Fund (LTCM), the company's $ 2.2 billion of its own funds as collateral to loans from financial institutions $ 125 billion.
基金公司,將公司總資產的1200多億美元,購入不同類別的金融產品,涉及各種的有價證券的市值,超過一萬億美元,杠杆倍數達56.8,只要遇到:千分之一的風險,便立即遭受,滅頂之災。

Fund companies, the company's total assets of more than 1200 billion dollars, to purchase different types of financial products, involving a variety of market value of the securities, over one trillion U.S. dollars, leverage up to 56.8, as long as: one-thousandth the risk was immediately subjected to extinction.

(九)筆者覺得:美元兌日本貨幣的初步目標價位將會是:86
9I think: the initial target price of U.S. dollar against the Japanese currency will be: 86

美國聯儲局對第三輪量化寬鬆措施(QE3)避而不談,而且對經濟前景也有較佳的評估,聯儲局同時亦提出,通貨膨脹於短期內存在壓力,所以金融市場揣測,聯儲局對推行量化寬鬆的措施,會是:「停一停,諗一諗」。
U.S. Fed avoided the third round of quantitative easing (QE3), and also have a better assessment of the economic outlook, the Fed also pointed out that inflation in the short term, there is pressure on the financial market speculation, the Fed on the implementation of quantitative easing measures, would be: "stop, recite and recite".

聯儲局暫時停止印刷鈔票購買美國債券,會利淡美國債券而利好美元貨幣,因此美國債券長期以及短期利息,都向上飆升;
Fed temporarily stop printing money to buy U.S. bonds, U.S. bonds bearish for the dollar currency, U.S. bonds long-term and short-term interest, are soaring upward;
美國10年期債券孳息,已經上升到2.28厘,突破了過去數個月,由1.8厘至 2.1厘的橫行區域,反映美元強勢趨向、弱勢趨向的美滙指數,亦已經升越 80關口。
U.S.10-year bond yield has risen to 2.28%, breaking through the past few months, from 1.8% to 2.1% rampant region, reflecting the trend of a stronger U.S. dollar, the weak trend of the U.S. exchange rate has already risen more 80 point mark the location.

由於聯儲局只是承諾維持較低利息至2014年底,對於重新推行(QE3)的日期,沒有提及。
Fed is committed to maintaining lower interest rates to the end of 2014, for the re-introduction (QE3) the date is not mentioned.

筆者由聯儲局的動向,觀察所得:隨着美國經濟,續漸慢慢改善過來,聯儲局已不再傾向再次推行,任何形式的(QE3),目的是避免推升通貨膨脹。
By the movements of the Fed, the author observed: as the U.S. economy gradually slowly turned the corner; the Fed has not inclined to re-implementation of any form (QE3), the purpose is to avoid pushing up inflation.
加上在未來兩年時間內,聯儲局在2014年前,維持低息的論調,金融市場也表示,存有懷疑態度,這一些信息結合在一起,其實將會暗示:未來美國的貨幣政策,將會由極度寬鬆的局面轉向收緊銀根狀況。

Plus within the next two years, the Federal Reserve in 2014, to maintain low-interest argument, also said the financial markets, there is skepticism, combined with some information, in fact, will be implied: the future of U.S. monetary policy,will be extremely easy situation to tighten the money supply situation.

相反而觀之,日本中央銀行,雖然未有加推新的(QE)措施,但就推出了2萬億日本貨幣的低利息貸款,用來支持國內高增長產業的借貸。
The contrary view, Japan's central bank, although failed to continue to implement additional new (QE) measures, but on the launch of low-interest loans of 2 trillion Japanese currency, used to support the borrowing of the domestic high-growth industry.

日本政府,向日本銀行,提供2萬億日本貨幣的低利息貸款,是否能夠支持,國內高增長產業取得成功,這不是重點;筆者總是覺得,銀行獲得這些利息極低的貸款之後,最終都會有很多資金,會流入金融市場,進行外匯操作。

After the Japanese government to the Bank of Japan to provide low-interest loans of 2 trillion Japanese currency, is able to support high growth industry success is not the point; I always feel that banks loan interest is very low, and ultimately there will be a lot of money will flow into the financial markets, foreign exchange operations.

目前金融市場的局面會是:美國政府開始收緊資金的供給;而日本政府,仍然採取放寬資金的措施,金融市場會預料:美國與日本利息差距,將會毫無疑問地逐步拉闊;令到金融市場的套息交易過程中,被沽空的貨幣,會由美元轉為日本貨幣,這是筆者繼續看淡日本貨幣的最大原因。
The current financial market situation: the U.S. government began to tighten the supply of funds; the Japanese government still take measures to relax capital, financial markets would have predicted: that the interest gap in the United States and Japan, will no doubt gradually widen; make interest arbitrage transactions in the financial markets, short selling of the currency from U.S. dollars into Japanese currency, which is the biggest reason I remain negative Japanese currency.
日本去年經歷了世紀地震和海嘯,但是日本貨幣,在七個國家的中央銀行攜手干預後,竟然又再次輾轉上揚,美元兌日本貨幣,在201110月底,更加改寫了匯率的「歷史紀錄高位」;當時,曾經迫使日本中央銀行進入金融市場,作出干預的行動。

Japan experienced a century earthquake and tsunami, but the Japanese currency, the central banks in seven countries to join hands after the intervention, even again removed rise, U.S. dollar against the Japanese currency, the end of October 2011, more rewrite the exchange rate of the "historical record high"; At that time, had forced the Japanese central bank access to financial markets and make the action of the intervention.

當時,很多金融界人仕,對於日本貨幣的強勢,都感到愕然;當日金融市場裏,唯一的解釋是:日本經濟的兩大支柱,仍然維持貿易收支有盈餘以及經常賬目收支都有盈餘,由於日本政府,出現雙項盈餘,日本政府已經擁有龐大的外滙儲備,這些盈餘儲備,越積越多,成為日本貨幣滙價的支持動力。

At that time, many of the financial person for the Japanese currency's strength, felt stunned; the date of the financial markets, the only explanation is: the two pillars of the Japanese economy remained the balance of trade surplus and current account balance of payments has surplus, because the Japanese government, the emergence of a dual surplus, the Government of Japan already has a huge foreign exchange reserves, these surplus reserves, piled up to support the power of currencies in Japan.

今時今日,日本政府已經由雙項目盈餘,變成雙項目出現赤字,經濟現實情況,又記錄得負增長,日本的利息率,是所有發達國家之中,位列最低層;日本中央銀行,在20122月商議利息定位後,把增加購買債券的規模,增加到10萬億日本貨幣以及設定了通貨膨脹目標。

日本政府採取上述兩項的舉措,更加令日本貨幣,繼續延伸弱勢。

Today, the Japanese government by the two-account surplus, into pairs project a deficit, the economic realities, but also recorded a negative growth, Japan's interest rate, is ranked the lowest level among all developed countries; Japan's central bank in 2012negotiate the interest positioned in February to increase the size of the purchase of bonds to 10 trillion Japanese currency and the setting of inflation targets.
The Japanese government to take these two initiatives: The more the Japanese currency, continue to extend the disadvantaged.

現時,全世界主要的中央銀行,都不斷擴大量化寬鬆的規模,日本政府排列位置,是最高的級別;希臘債務危機暫時緩和下來,亦削弱了日本貨幣成為避險貨幣的功能;
At present, the world's major central banks, expanding the scale of quantitative easing, the Japanese government is in place, is the highest level; debt crisis in Greece temporarily eased, but also weaken the Japanese currency as a hedge currency;

再加上美國的利息飆升,美國國債兩年期的孳息,接近 0.4厘;日本政府國債,兩年期孳息是0.1厘,由於兩個國家的孳息差距拉闊了,日本貨幣,已經再度取代美元,成為套息交易的主要融資貨幣。

Coupled with the soaring U.S. interest, the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds for the biennium, nearly 0.4%; Japanese government bonds, the biennial yield is 0.1% widening the gap due to the interest of both countries, the Japanese currency has re-replace the dollar as the main funding currency for carry trade.

日本政府20121月份,已經出現了,高達4,373億日本貨幣的流動帳赤字;日本國內經濟,已經到達糟糕的地步;目前日本政府,依賴為經濟支柱的出口業,也開始告急;國家經濟前景惡化,也只會令到日本貨幣,繼續成為弱勢貨幣。
Japanese Government in January 2012, there have been, up to 4,373 billion Japanese currency liquidity account deficit; Japan's domestic economy has reached the point of bad; the Japanese government, dependent on the economic pillar of the export sector, have begun an emergency; the country's economic prospects deterioration will only make the Japanese currency continued to be a weak currency.

即使日本中央銀行,已經於20122月,推出10萬億日本貨幣的(QE),日本政府,對於繼續擴大(QE)的呼聲,並未減弱。日本政府,決心推跌日圓的立場,十分明顯。
Japan's central bank, already in February 2012, launched 10 trillion (QE) of the Japanese currency, the Japanese government, continue to expand (QE), the voice, not weakened. The Japanese government determined to push down the yen's position very clear.

筆者根據上述的事實顯示:筆者維持,繼續看淡日本貨幣的前景,美元兌日本貨幣的初步目標價位是:86,支持位置是:81
Based on the above facts, the author: I maintain, continue to dim the prospects of the Japanese currency, the initial target price of U.S. dollar against the Japanese currency is: 86, support the position: 81.

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My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

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