（Chapter 15）Nine euro area countries, sovereign rating is Standard & Poor's reduced; Do you know the fuse is?

讀者都應該記得，根據我寫作的進度，這一期應該寫「利差交易」。

Readers should remember that, according to the progress of writing, this issue should write the "carry trade."

由於標準普爾把歐洲九個國家的主權評級降低，觸動了金融市場敏感的神經線，很多人都緊張起來，所以臨時轉換了話題，敬請原諒。

As the Standard & Poor's sovereign rating in nine European countries to reduce, touched sensitive nerves of financial markets, many people are nervous, so the temporary changed the subject, please forgive me.

歐洲聯盟和歐元區於2012年1月20日，經歷了一個「黑色星期五」，歐元區有九個國家的主權評級，被標準普爾降低，您知道導火線是甚麼嗎？

European Union and the euro zone in January 20, 2012, experienced a "Black Friday", nine countries have the euro area sovereign rating by Standard & Poor's reduced, do you know the fuse is?

這是由於：希臘政府與「國際金融學會」的代表談判其失敗。

This is due to: the Greek government and the "Institute of International Finance," the representative of the negotiations to fail.

「國際金融學會」是「對沖基金」的談判代表。

"Institute of International Finance" is a "hedge fund" negotiator.

希臘的國債，由於價格不斷下降，最終，大部份落入對沖基金的口袋裏。

Greek government bonds, as prices continued to fall, eventually, the majority of hedge funds into the pockets.

這些對沖基金都是豺狼的化身，他們對可能遇到的風險都計算清楚。

These hedge funds are the embodiment of wolves; their possible risks are clearly calculated.

希臘政府原來的設想是，使用高壓辦法，企圖強迫對沖基金自動削減債款50%。

Greek Government's original plan is to use high-pressure methods in an attempt to force hedge funds to reduce debt 50% automatically.

但是，這些對沖基金，寧願希望希臘政府宣布違約，以便通過違約掉期，向出售CDS的保險公司或金融機構，取得全部金額的賠償。

However, these hedge funds, would rather hope that the Greek government announced default, so by default swaps, to sell CDS insurance company or financial institution to obtain the full amount of compensation.

2012年1月16日。法國總統薩爾科齊及德國總理默克爾在柏林會面，他們都希望歐洲聯盟可在2012年3月1日前，簽訂更緊密財政連繫的多邊協定，並正式回應，希臘政府要求「三方財團」，盡快批準撥出第二期應急貸款，希望暫時解決難題。

January 16, 2012. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met in Berlin, they want the European Union in the March 1, 2012, entered into closer financial ties, multilateral agreements and a formal response, the Greek Government requested the "Tripartite Foundation ", approved as soon as possible, set aside the second emergency loan, want to temporarily solve the problem.

希臘政府因為與對沖基金的談判失敗，削減債務50%的願望，終於落空。

Greek government, failure of the negotiations with hedge funds, 50% of the Greek government's desire to reduce debt, has finally come to nothing.

因此，希臘政府便不能，取得歐洲聯盟、歐洲中央銀行及國際貨幣基金會組成的「三方集團」，第二期總值1300億歐羅的緊急貸款。

Therefore, the Greek government cannot obtain the European Union, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, a "three groups", the second worth 130 billion euro emergency loan.

由於談判雙方的主軸，都不在同一軌道上，最後，談判當然是破裂了。大風暴隨即便刮起了。

As the negotiations the two sides of the spindle, not in the same orbit, and finally, of course, the negotiations broke down. Then they whipped up a storm.

不過，我總覺得，希臘政府還是有最終極的解決辦法，以解決目前的僵局。

However, I always felt that the Greek government still has the ultimate solution to resolve the current impasse.

希臘政府，其實可以馬上訂立法例，立法規定，只要政府在取得一定比率的私營機構同意下，就等同，所有私營機構，自願接受削債50%的條款；

Greek government, in fact, can immediately introduce legislation to enact legislation, as long as a certain percentage of the government in obtaining the consent of the private sector, the equivalent of all the private sector, voluntary 50% cut debt provisions;

並且必須按照希臘政府所訂的條件，把私營機構擁有的，舊希臘國債，轉換成新的國債，而且年期重新訂定為30年，或更加長期的希臘國債。

And must be in accordance with the conditions laid down by the Greek government, the private sector have, the old Greek bonds into new bonds, and re-set period of 30 years or more long-term Greek government bonds.

不過，希臘政府，能否取得足夠的私營機構支持，這真是有待希臘政府或歐洲的領袖的斡旋了。

However, the Greek government, the private sector the ability to obtain adequate support, this is really to be the leader of the Greek government or the mediation of Europe.

筆者認為，如果這一方法，最終都是失敗的話，希臘國債除了宣布違約，已經是別無選擇了。

I believe that if this approach are ultimately fails, the Greek government bonds in addition to that breach of contract, is no choice.

請讀者注意：歐元不會在短期內解體的，因為這是牽涉全球經濟的大事，各國領袖不會坐視不理的。

Note to reader: the disintegration of the euro is not in the short term, because this is a major event involved in the global economy, world leaders will not turn a blind eye to.

不過，歐元匯價波動，卻是難免。筆者會在日後的評論中，說明歐元不會短期內解體的原因。

However, the euro exchange rate fluctuations, it is inevitable. The author comments in the future, indicating that the euro will not cause the disintegration of the short term.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容，純屬個人意見分享，並未對任何人士構成投資建議

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

（Chapter 14）European banking industry, will get a candy, but lost a factory? You know CDS？What types of financial products is?

（第十四章）歐洲銀行業，會為得到一粒糖菓，而輸掉一間工廠？您認識CDS？它是甚麼種類的金融產品嗎？

CDS中文稱為：信用違約互換交易 CDS full name call Credit default swap

為了釐清CDS的觀念，我首先舉一個例子：甲先生與乙先生，是兩個不同的個體，甲先生認為，乙先生是一個，駕駛汽車技術水平非常差劣的人，遲早有一天，乙先生，會發生車禍，因此而死亡。

 In order to clarify the concept of CDS, I first give an example: Mr. A and Mr. B are two different individuals, Mr. A believes that Mr. B is a, very poor driving skills of people, sooner or later, Mr. B will a car accident, have died.

甲先生於是找到一間保險公司，替乙先生購買駕駛汽車意外死亡保險，保額是一萬元，每月保費由交易雙方商定，假如乙君每天都生活正常，沒有因為交通意外而死亡，那麼甲先生便要，每月向接受保險的公司，支付保險費用。

 Mr. A then find an insurance company, for Mr. B to buy, driving a car accident death insurance, the amount is $ 10,000, the monthly premium by the two parties agreed that if Mr. B, normal everyday life, not because of traffic accidents and death, then Mr. A will be a month to the insurance company to pay insurance costs.

假如乙君，不幸因為駕駛汽車，意外死亡，那麼保險公司便要向甲君，賠償一萬元。

If Mr. B, unfortunately, because driving a car, accidental death, then the insurance company to Mr. A, compensation $ 10,000.

CDS的概念是這樣的：

 CDS concept is this:

在信用違約互換交易中，違約互換購買者，將定期向違約互換出售者，支付一定費用(稱為信用違約互換點差)，

 In the credit default swap, CDS buyers will keep the default swap seller to pay a fee (called a credit default swap spreads),

 而一旦出現違約，違約互換購買者，將有權利將債券，以面值賣給違約互換出售者，購買者從而有效規避，信用風險。

The event of default, default swap buyers will have the right to bonds sold at par default swap sellers, buyers so as to effectively avoid the credit risk.

舉例而言，A借錢給B，並向C購入CDS，對A而言，購買CDS可降低風險。只要B不發生信貸違約事件，C可以定期收取費用，增加收益。但B如果發生違約，C便要向A賠償合約的保額，面對損失。

For example, A lends to B, to C purchase CDS, the A, the purchase of CDS can reduce the risk. B does not occur as long as credit default event, C can be regularly charge and increase revenue. However, if a breach of contract B, C to A compensation agreement will be insured, the face of loss.

 信用違約交換(CDS)指的，是一種可讓「信用提供者(放款人)」移轉信用風險的衍生性金融商品。

 Credit default swap (CDS) refers, may make a "credit providers (lenders)" transfer of credit risk derivatives.

例如，銀行A借錢三億美元給予公司C，銀行A為了降低違約風險，便與銀行B簽訂CDS合約，銀行A向銀行B，支付保險金，雙方商訂，保險金的數額，日後若發生違約情形，銀行B就需要賠償，銀行A的全部損失。違約的風險，便由原本的銀行A轉移給銀行B，所以稱為「信用違約交換」。

 For example, Bank A lend three hundred million U.S. dollars given to companies C, Bank A in order to reduce the risk of default, CDS has signed a contract with Bank B, Bank A to Bank B, to pay insurance premiums, the two sides to work out, the amount of insurance, if the future happen breach of contract case, Bank B will need compensation, bank A's entire loss. Risk of default, then transferred from the original bank A to bank B, so called "credit default swap."

2008年雷曼倒閉所引發金融風暴後，希臘的CDS由2009年3月底的322bps（3.22%）增加到2010年5月時的838bps（8.38%）。

 Lehman in 2008 after the collapse of the financial turmoil, the CDS Greece by the end of March 2009 of 322bps (3.22%) increased in May 2010 when 838bps (8.38%).

 簡單地說，在2010年5月時，100萬的希臘債款，要支付8.38萬，才能移轉手上希臘的信用風險；

Simply said, in May 2010, 100 million of Greek debt, to pay 83 800 in order to transfer the credit risk of the hands of Greece;

但在2009年3月底時，只需要付出3.22萬。

 But at the end of March 2009 only need to pay 32200.

也就是說，在2010年5月時，希臘的信用風險大幅增加。假如，希臘債務問題持續，信用風險持續，則CDS會越來越高，相反，便會越來越低。

 In other words, when in May 2010, Greece's credit risk is significantly increased. If the Greek debt problem persists, continue to credit risk, the CDS will be more and more, on the contrary, will be getting lower and lower.

當讀者有了CDS的觀念後，我們便可以繼續以下的進程。

 When the reader with the concept of CDS,we can continue the following process.

過去數月，有關歐洲債務的消息，無論是正面的，或者是負面的，都瞬息萬變，令到，相隔了一個大西洋的美國交易員，他們原本早上 9時，才會為股市交易作準備，目前，卻要大幅度提前，在凌晨 2時半，開始工作，因為他們須要，密切監察歐洲金融市場，開市後的市場情況。

 Over the past few months, the news on the European debt, whether positive or negative, are constantly changing, so that, a part of a transatlantic American traders, who had 9 am, will prepare for the stock market transactions, the current have a substantial advance in 2:30, to work, because they need to closely monitor the European financial markets after the market opened, the market conditions.

事實上，最近美國股票的表現，的確由歐洲金融市場主導方向。歐洲聯盟領袖，當經濟高峯會議結束後，儘管領袖們在會上達成共識，承諾成立新的財政聯盟，但卻並非意味，歐洲債務危機，會暫告一段落。

 The recent performance of U.S. stocks is indeed led by the direction of European financial markets. European Union leaders, when the summit ended, despite the consensus reached at the conference leaders, committed to the establishment of the new fiscal union, but it does not mean, the debt crisis in Europe, will be ended.

金融市場的交易員，也未能因此每天睡覺多幾小時。首先不去討論，用來救援陷入財政困難國家的金錢，由那裏尋來？

 Financial market traders also failed to sleep so many hours a day. First, do not discuss, to rescue countries in financial difficulties the money from where to find?

 根據歐洲銀行管理局（ EBA）的最新資料，「炸彈」已經埋藏於，歐洲區內的金融機構。

 According to the European Banking Authority (EBA) for the latest information, "bomb" has been buried in the European region's financial institutions.

 歐洲區內的銀行，因為持有，大量己經陷入財政困難，國家的主權債務，因而令銀行的資產負債表，應該具備的良好營運質素，不斷下降。

Intra-European bank, as holders of a large number have been in financial difficulties, the country's sovereign debt, and thus the balance sheets of banks, should have a good quality of operation, continues to drop.

根據最新的 EBA數據顯示，由於歐洲銀行陷入財政困難，銀行為了廣開財源，彼此競爭，不斷濫發陷入財政困難，債務堆積如山的國家，擁有的信貸違約掉期（ CDS）。

 According to the latest data show that EBA, because European banks in financial difficulties, banks in order to open up financial resources, compete with each other, constantly spamming in financial difficulties, the mountain of national debt, with credit default swaps (CDS).

它們的目的：就是貪圖取得， CDS買家，須要繳交保險金的利益。

Their purpose: to seek to obtain, CDS buyers have to pay insurance benefits.

舉法國國家巴黎銀行為例，銀行發行及買入法國主權 CDS，金額分別為 35億歐元及 20億歐元，換言之，法國國家巴黎銀行，淨額發行法國主權 CDS金額，達 到15億歐元。

 For example, the French National Bank of Paris, the French banks to issue and buy sovereign CDS, respectively amount to € 3.5 billion and 2 billion euros, in other words, the French National Bank of Paris, the French sovereign CDS net issuance amount of 15 billion euros.

假使，法國最終就其主權債務違約，法國國家巴黎銀行便要作出巨額賠償。

 If the French finally on its sovereign debt default, the French Paribas will have to make huge compensation.

其中，最大的核心問題是：法國國家巴黎銀行，銀行本身亦持有大量法國主權債務，所以，金融市場的投資者，絕對有理由，擔心該銀行的業務前景。

 Of which the largest is the core issue: the French Paribas itself holds a lot of French sovereign debt, so financial markets investors have every reason to fear that the bank's business prospects.

而歐洲銀行業，淨額發行 CDS，的主權國名單，包括意大利及西班牙，發行淨額分別達 52億及 15億歐元。

The European banking sector, net issuance CDS, the list of sovereign states, including Italy and Spain, respectively, net issues amounted 5.2 billion and 15 billion euros.

讓我不厭其煩地，再簡單解釋甚麼是 CDS。

I patiently and then briefly explain what is the CDS.

它其實是金融保險產品的一種。

It is a financial and insurance product.

債券的投資者，為求安心持有債券，他可以購買 CDS保險，但是，要定期向發行CDS保險的發行商，支付保險費。假如，所持有的國家主權債券違約，CDS的發行商，便會為買家作出金錢賠償。

Bond investors holding the bond for the sake of peace of mind, he could buy CDS insurance, however, on a regular basis, to issue CDS insurance issuer, to pay insurance premiums. If, some sovereign bonds held by default, CDS issuers, monetary compensation will be made for the buyer.

歐洲銀行業的交易對手風險（ counterparty risk）正在升溫，令人憂慮的實情是：根本毋須任何國家出現違約或破產，現時歐洲 CDS保險市場規模之龐大，已經可以，拖累整個世界的經濟。

 European banking counterparty risk (counterparty risk) is heating up, worrying truth is: there is no need of any state of default or bankruptcy, the current insurance market in the European CDS enormous scale, they can already, drag the entire world economy.

 因為根據CDS保險市場的交易要求，銀行每天必須要為 CDS保險及其相關債券的差額，追加孖展金額。

According to requirements of CDS insurance market transactions, the bank every day for the CDS must be the difference between the insurance and related notes, additional margin amount.

只要發行債券的國家，它的債券價格，持續下跌，歐洲區內的銀行，最終會因為被追加孖展金額，再次陷入財政困難。

 As long as the state to issue bonds, which bond prices continued to fall, the European regional banks, will eventually be added because the amount of margin, again in financial difficulties.

 所以穆迪評級機構，最近再將三大法國銀行：降低評級，實在是有充份理據的。

法國巴黎銀行（BNP Paribas，又名「巴黎國民銀行」）

法國興業銀行（法語：Société Générale，簡稱法興，Euronext： GLE）

法國農業信貸銀行（Crédit Agricole）

Therefore, Moody's rating agency, then the three most recent French Bank: Bank of Paris, France, French bank Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, France, Reducing the rating, it is fully justified.

或許，有人認為：擔心這情況出現是太過多慮。

Perhaps some people think: there is too worried about this situation worry.

但2008年，金融海嘯未發生前，也沒有太多人，會想過 AIG，會因為交易對手風險，最終須要由美國政府託管。

But in 2008, the financial crisis had not occurred, and not many people would be thought of AIG, because of counterparty risk, and ultimately required by the U.S. government custody.

目前，歐洲銀行潛藏的交易對手風險，其實是當年 AIG的翻版，甚至牽連的範圍會更加廣泛。

 Currently, the European banks hidden counterparty risk, AIG is a replica of that year, and even more extensive range will be implicated.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容，純屬個人意見分享，並未對任何人士構成投資建議

 My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

下期我們會回顧歷史。您知道甚麼叫「利差交易」嗎？

The next issue we will look back at history. You know what 「carry trade」is it?

（Chapter 13）U.S. concerns, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund rescue package, but the money thrown into the sea? （2）

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容，純屬個人意見分享，並未對任何人士構成投資建議 My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person

（第十三章）美國憂慮，歐洲聯盟及國際貨幣基金會的救市行動，只是把金錢拋進大海？

（2） 如果有人對您說：2012年投資買股票，這會是您一生中，唯一一次可以買到最便宜的股票，您會相信嗎？事實是：不管您是否相信，反正，我相信了。

 If someone told you: investment to buy stocks in 2012, this will be your life, the only time you can buy the cheapest stocks that you believe that? The fact is: Regardless of whether you believe, anyway, I believe.

我可以告訴您，明年最差勁的經濟情況，便是出現歐洲有些國家，實際出現債務違約，並且觸發歐元解體，這一種情況絕對會出現，而且，後果將會是災難性，當這一情況出現時，地球上，每一個人，在他這一世當中，買到最便宜股票的機會，就會出現。

 I can tell you that next year the worst economic situation, is there some European countries, the actual debt default, and trigger the disintegration of the euro, such a situation will definitely arise, and the consequences will be disastrous, when the situation when on earth, every person in this world which he, the opportunity to buy the cheapest stock, will appear.

當股票的市盈率，下跌至 5至 6倍時，便是進入市場的最佳時機，比較2008更便宜，因為2008年，那時的市盈率，都是 7至 8倍。筆者的第一桶金便是由這一次難得的機會，賺回來的。

 When the stock price-earnings ratio, down to 5 to 6 times, is the best time to enter the market, relatively cheaper 2008 because in 2008, when the price-earnings ratio, are 7 to 8 times. My pot of gold is a rare opportunity from this, a bonus.

 為了令讀者，容易理解我的理念，我要向讀者解釋，量化寬鬆的內涵：

To make readers easy to understand my philosophy, I would like to my readers to explain the meaning of quantitative easing:

量化寬鬆是一貨幣政策，由中央銀行通過公開市場操作，以提高貨幣供應，可視之為創造出指定金額的貨幣，也被簡化地形容為，間接增加貨幣供應，大量印刷鈔票。

Quantitative easing is a monetary policy by the central bank through open market operations to increase the money supply, can be considered to create a specified amount of money, has also been described as a simplified manner, thereby increasing the money supply, large print money.

實際的操作，是由中央銀行，通過公開市場操作，購入金融市場上的股票或其他資產，使銀行在中央銀行開設的結算戶口內，增加資金，為銀行體系注入全新的資金流通性。

The actual operation is determined by the central bank through open market operations, the purchase of shares on the financial markets or other assets, the bank opened in the central bank clearing accounts, increase funding for the banking system into the new capital liquidity.

「量化寬鬆」中的「量化」，意思是將會創造，指定金額的貨幣，而「寬鬆」則指減低銀行的資金壓力。

 "Quantitative easing" in the "quantitative", meaning that will be created, the amount of money, and "loose" means to reduce the bank's financial pressures.

中央銀行利用憑空創造出來的金錢，在公開市場購買政府債券；或借錢給，接受存款機構，從銀行購買資產等。

 Central bank to use money created out of thin air, in the open market purchase of government bonds; or lend to, deposit-taking institutions, from banks to buy assets.

這些措施，都會引起政府債券收益率的下降；銀行同業隔夜利率的降低，銀行從而坐擁大量，只能賺取極低利息的資產。

These measures will lead to a decline in government bond yields; overnight interbank interest rate reduction, which sits on a large number of banks, only a very low interest earning assets.

中央銀行期望，銀行會因此，比較願意，提供貸款給工業或商業機構，以賺取回報，紓緩金融市場的資金壓力。

 Expect the central bank, the bank will, therefore, more willing to provide loans to industrial or commercial establishment, in order to earn a return, the financial markets to ease the financial pressure.

當銀行資金，已經鬆動，或購買的資產，將跟隨着通貨膨脹而貶值（如國庫債券）時，量化寬鬆，會使貨幣傾向貶值。

 When the bank funds, have been loose, or purchase of assets, depreciation will be followed by inflation (such as Treasury bonds), the quantitative easing, will tend to depreciate the currency.

由於量化寬鬆有可能增加貨幣貶值的風險，政府通常會在，面臨通貨收縮時，推出量化寬鬆的措施。而持續的量化寬鬆措施，會增加通貨膨脹的風險。

Because quantitative easing is likely to increase the risk of currency devaluation, the government usually facing deflation, the introduction of quantitative easing measures. The continuous quantitative easing measures will increase the risk of inflation.

推出量化寬鬆措施，對實體經濟，不會有很大幫助，但是，對投資市場的意願或氣氛，就會有重大的刺激作用。

Introduction of quantitative easing measures on the real economy, not much help, but, on the investment market will or the atmosphere, there will be a major stimulus.

更重要的是，當年美國投資銀行遇到的是，發生資金流動性危機；但是，歐洲主權債務危機，卻含有，實實在在的債務違約的風險。

More importantly, when U.S. investment bank is encountered, the occurrence of liquidity crisis, but European sovereign debt crisis, but it contains a real risk of debt default.

美國經濟復甦仍在持續過程中，經濟數據的最壞時刻，已經過去了，這是２０１２年的最好消息。不過，美國的債務，卻似滾雪球般，不斷膨脹下去。

U.S. economic recovery is continuing the process, the worst of the economic data has been passed, and this is the best news in 2012. However the U.S. debt, just like snowball, swelling down.

美國在大選之年，民主黨和共和黨，在債務上限的議題上，爭論不斷，仍然有很大可能，影響投資者的情緒。另外，在全球領導人的競選週期，國際貿易摩擦，不斷升級，幾乎無可避免。

 U.S. election year, Democrats and Republicans, in the debt ceiling issues, the debate continued, may still affect investor sentiment. In addition, the global leader in the election cycle, international trade friction, is escalating, almost inevitable.

金磚四國（巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國）在2011年遇到遭遇到發展的障礙，股市表現，很不理想。因為連續6-7年高速增長之後，它們的經濟，都出現各種各樣的經濟失衡。

 BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) in 2011 faced the obstacles encountered in the development of the stock market performance, far from ideal. 6-7 consecutive years because of rapid growth, their economies have suffered a variety of economic imbalances.

匯率的大幅波動、熱錢的到處流動，經濟、金融都會受到扭曲的發展，筆者認為，金磚四國中，在2012年中，中國陷入困境的機會的確不小。

Exchange rate fluctuations, the full flow of hot money, the economy, and financial development will be subject to distortions, I believe that the BRIC countries, in 2012, China's troubled opportunities were not small.

雖然歐盟及國際貨幣基金組織成員國，已經達成共識，將合共提供 2000億歐元，協助金融市埸，穩定市場的情況。

Although the European Union and the International Monetary Fund member countries, a consensus has been reached, will provide a total of 200 billion euros to help the financial market, stable market.

但是，佔有 IMF最大份額的美國，及其他有意注資的新興國家，已經開始擔心，國際貨幣基金組織，向財政陷入困難的國家，提供的所有金錢支援，差不多是把金錢掉落大海，結果只有失去，不會返回來。

 However, the IMF holds the largest share of the United States, and other potential funding of emerging countries, have begun to worry about, the International Monetary Fund, to finance a difficult country to provide support for all the money, money falling almost to the sea, only to lose the results of will not return to.

不過，前任國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的執行董事多梅尼科．隆巴迪卻指出，即使美國反對，亦無法阻止國際貨幣基金組織向歐洲提供金錢支援，因為，國際貨幣基金組織，具有責任，阻止歐洲債務危機，向各國擴散。

 However, the former International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive director Domenica Lombardi has pointed out, even if the U.S. opposed, they cannot prevent the International Monetary Fund to provide financial support to Europe, because, the International Monetary Fund, have the responsibility to stop the debt crisis in Europe, spread to all countries.

目前，歐洲債務危機，仍然沒辦法解決。根據銀行分析員估計，匈牙利可能需要向歐洲聯盟及 IMF尋求多達150億歐元，緊急貸款，用以償還，2013年，總值 47億歐元的負債。IMF當局，即將派遣專家訪問團，前往布達佩斯，審視匈牙利的狀況。

So far, the debt crisis in Europe, still, there is no proper solution. According to bank analyst’s estimate, Hungary and the European Union may need to seek up to € 15 billion IMF emergency loans to repay, in 2013, worth 4.7 billion euros of debt. IMF authorities will dispatch experts to missions, to Budapest, Hungary to examine the situation.

為了使讀者更加了解隨後我的論述，下期我會首先向讀者解釋兩個基本的概念：

1「信用違約掉期」是甚麼概念（CDS）？

 2 「套息交易」或稱「信用違約互換交易」是甚麼概念？

 To make my readers better understand the subsequent discussion, the next issue I will first explain to the reader of two basic concepts:

1 what is the meaning of（CDS） credit default swap concept?

2 what is the concept of carry trade?


下期發表： （第十四章）美國憂慮，歐洲聯盟及國際貨幣基金會的救市行動，只是把金錢拋進大海？

The next issue published:

（Chapter 14）U.S. concerns, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund rescue package, but the money thrown into the sea?

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容，純屬個人意見分享，並未對任何人士構成投資建議

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person

（Chapter 12）U.S. concerns, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund rescue package, but the money thrown into the sea? （1）

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容，純屬個人意見分享，並未對任何人士構成投資建議

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

（第十二章）美國憂慮，歐洲聯盟及國際貨幣基金會的救市行動，只是把金錢拋進大海？

（1） 2012年，最大的市場動盪根源，肯定是歐洲債務危機。

2012, the largest source of market turmoil is certainly Europe's debt crisis. .

投資者必須留意，2012年，最容易出現危機的月份，是 2月至 3月。

 Investors should note that in 2012, the month most prone to crisis, in February to March.

這一段期間，有很多歐洲借貸到期償還，到時必須把到期還款的債項，轉換成新的貸款。

 During this period, there are many European loans due for repayment, when, due to the repayment of debt into new loans.

在 2月份，希臘、愛爾蘭、葡萄牙及西班牙，這四個國家，便會有，七千億歐元，的國家債務，要更換成為新的借貸。

In February, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, the four countries, will have, seven hundred billion euros, the national debt, to be replaced as new lending.

 由此看來，2012年，金融市場的日子會是危機重重。為了解決燃眉之急，歐洲的領袖會被迫進行，遇到極端事件，採取極端政策處理的手段企圖解決難題。

 From this, in 2012, the day the financial markets would be dire. In order to solve immediate problems, European leaders will be forced to encounter extreme events, take extreme policies to deal with, the means of attempting to solve problems.

全球金融市場，會在大幅上漲，迅速下跌的軌跡中震盪、喘息、興奮、絕望。不斷互相交替，循環進行。

 Global financial markets will raise, rapid decline in the trajectory of the shock, breathing, excitement, despair. Continue to alternate with each other, loop.

銀行為補充資本充足比率而去進行自我保護；資金會在動盪與前景不確定性中，選擇規避風險？還是繼續投機？政府在主權債務困境和金融危機中，疲於奔命。

 Capital adequacy ratio of banks away to supplement self-protection; financial turmoil and prospects in the uncertainty, the choice to avoid the risk? Or continue to speculation? Government in the sovereign debt difficulties and financial crisis, exhausted.

2012年，對投資者而言，必須裝備自己，嚴陣以待。

 2012, for investors, must equip themselves to meet the challenge.

2012年，第一季度，意大利、葡萄牙分別有佔總債務，三分之一的國家債務，需要續期。

2012, first quarter Italy, Portugal, respectively, of the total debt, one-third of the national debt, the need for renewal.

希臘，要重新安排借入的債款，更達到總債務的40%。

Greece, to reschedule the debts borrowed, even up to 40% of the total debt.

 法國要重新安排借入的債款，更達到總債務的37%。

France needs to be re-arranged to borrow the debt, even up to 37% of the total debt.

歐洲主權債務，有超過3000億歐元，要安排發出新債款，償還舊債款。

 European sovereign debt, more than 300 billion euros, must be re-arranged to borrow new debt to repay old debts section.

歐洲中央銀行，也有2500億歐元債款到期償還。

European Central Bank, there are 250 billion euros debt due for repayment.

 歐洲中央銀行，另外，還有2000億歐元，按揭抵押債券，須要重新續期。

European Central Bank, in addition, there are 200 billion euros, mortgage-backed securities, have re-extended.

 歐洲金融市場，須要償還的債款，已經進入高峰時期，但是，以目前金融市場，投資者的情緒，避險意識高漲。要在金融市場上，依靠民間資金支援，應該是極其困難的事情。

European financial market, need to repay the debt, has entered the peak period, however, the current financial markets, investor sentiment, risk aversion high. In financial markets, rely on private financial support, should be extremely difficult.

除了意大利之外，法國被捲入歐債危機的旋窩可能性，十分之高。

In addition to Italy, the French were involved in the debt crisis of the possibility of spin-nest, very high.

目前，法國的總債務負擔，仍然在可以控制的範圍之內，但是，國家的財政赤字，卻非常令人吃驚。

 Currently, the total debt burden of the French, still within the range can be controlled, but the country's budget deficit, but it is very surprising.

假如，金融市場，對法國政府的償還債務能力感到擔心，法國的融資成本，可能暴漲，假如這種情況出現的話，歐洲債務危機，便會推上新的高潮，將歐元置於前所未有的凶險境地。

 If the financial markets, the French government's ability to repay debt are worried about France's financing costs, may be soaring, if this situation occurs, the debt crisis in Europe will rise to a new climax, the euro placed unprecedented dangerous situation.

假如法國信貸評級，被評級機構連降兩級的話，對法國債務、對歐元都絕對是災難性的。

 If French credit rating by rating agencies even lower levels, then again, the French debt, the euro is absolutely disastrous.

同時，希臘可能出現，第二次違約的情況，甚至，可能以某種形式，退出歐元區。這種情況，一旦出現，不僅希臘銀行遭到擠提，其他歐洲國家，也可能遭遇，連環衝擊。

 Meanwhile, Greece may be the second event of default, even, may in some form, out of the euro. This situation, in the event, the Bank of Greece was not only a run other European countries may also be encountered, comic impact.

歐債危機中，對歐洲之外國家，及金融市場，最具殺傷力的，當然是歐洲銀行，陷入信用危機。

 European debt crisis, the countries outside of Europe, and the financial markets, the most lethal, of course, European banks into a credit crisis.

歐洲中央央行推出，3年期流動性操作（ＬＴＲＯ）及六個國家，中央行的美元互換協議，雖然暫時紓緩了銀行資金的流動性危機，但是並未能實際增加銀行的資金，也未能修復，銀行之間的互相不信任。

 European Central Bank introduced the three-year liquidity operations (LTRO) and six countries, the central line of the U.S. dollar swap agreement, although the temporary relief of the bank liquidity crisis, but does not actually increase the bank's funds, nor to repair, the mutual distrust between banks.

一旦歐洲債務局勢，進一步惡化，個別的歐洲銀行，的資產負債表，勢必再受打擊。我認為，歐洲銀行體系，正在醞釀一場，類似雷曼倒閉的金融危機模式。我唯有寄望於，有關國家中央銀行及政府，及早作籌謀，規避風險，但是，他們的過往表現，卻令我放心不下。

If the debt crisis in Europe to further deteriorates, individual European banks, balance sheets, bound setback. In my opinion, the European banking system is preparing a similar collapse of Lehman's financial crisis mode. I can only hope that in the relevant national central banks and governments, as soon as possible for planning ahead, to avoid risks, but their past performance made me worried.

假如，歐洲銀行破產浪潮出現了，全世界的中央銀行，都不會坐視不理。但是，各個國家的中央銀行，唯一解決辦法，只能推出量化寬鬆措施，開動印鈔機器。美國、歐盟、日本、英國，同時開動印鈔機器的可能性很大，投資者不容忽視。

 If the European wave of bank failures occurred, the world's central banks, will not sit idly by. However, each country's central bank, the only solution, can only introduce quantitative easing measures, printing money machine. U.S., EU, Japan, Britain, and the possibility of a great machine printing money, investors cannot be ignored.

在這樣一種情況下，金融市場，可能由絕望的情緒，一夜之間，變成熱火朝天，把投資者的情緒，由失落的一端，擺向另一種火熱的極端。

 In such a case, the financial markets may be caused by despair, overnight, into full swing, the investor sentiment, by the loss of one end of the pendulum to another extreme hot.

投資者極有可能，短期內發達賺大錢，也有可能，在極短時間內，把金錢全部輸清光。

 Investors are most likely in the short term developed to make big money may also, in a very short period of time, lose all the money, pure light.

 從事金融活動的投資者，必須及早裝備，投資技巧。

 Investors engaged in financial activities, the importance of early equipment, investment techniques.

 （第十二章）美國憂慮，歐洲聯盟及國際貨幣基金會的救市行動，只是把金錢拋進大海？

 筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容，純屬個人意見分享，並未對任何人士構成投資建議

 My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

(Chapter 11) people, the precious metals misconceptions

（第11章） 人們，對貴價金屬的錯誤觀念

(Chapter 11) people, the precious metals misconceptions

當市場風險厭惡情緒上升時，很多人錯誤地認為，貴價金屬，例如黃金和白銀，屬於避險資產。其實，這是一個錯誤的觀念。

 When the market risk aversion rises, many people mistakenly believe that precious metals such as gold and silver, is safe-haven assets. In fact, this is a misconception.

真正的避險資產，我可以告訴您，是美元和美國國債。

 Real safe-haven assets, I can tell you, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds.

當然，貴價金屬在金融市場上，可以作為抵押品，但是，貴價金屬的流動性，不如美元和美債，可作為支付結算功能。

 Of course, the precious metals in financial markets,can be used as collateral, but the mobility of precious metals, as U.S. dollar debt, as, payment and settlement functions.

踏入2012年，投資貴價金屬的長期基本因素，並沒有改變，因為貴價金屬，可以對沖通貨膨脹和貨幣貶值。

 Into 2012, investment in precious metals, the long-term fundamentals has not changed, because the precious metals can be a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.

由於歐洲央行，幾乎可以肯定，會推出量化寬鬆政策，加上，聯儲局在2012第一季度，也會推出第三輪量化寬鬆政策，這一個長期基本因素，已經在最近幾個星期，越來越明顯。

 As the European Central Bank, almost certainly, will launch quantitative easing policy, coupled with the Fed in the first quarter of 2012, will launch the third round of the quantitative easing policy, which is a long-term fundamentals, has in recent weeks, more was.

然而，最近，貴金屬價格的下跌，是對美元繼續強勢的最好啟示。

 However, recently, precious metals prices fall, is the best strength against the U.S. dollar continues to enlightenment.

這種啟示，進一步表明，全球股票和商品市場，會在短期內，出現向下修正的壓力。

This revelation is further evidence of the global stock and commodity markets, in the short term, the pressure of a downward correction.

貴價金屬上漲，的最佳市場條件是，

1 溫和的經濟增長。

2低度的避險情緒。

3高通脹的預期。

4 美金開始轉弱勢。

 Precious metals price the best market conditions

1 a moderate economic growth.

2 low degree of risk aversion.

3 high inflation expectations 4 U.S. Dollars began to turn weak.

 （第十二章）美國憂慮，歐洲聯盟及國際貨幣基金會的救市行動，只是把金錢拋進大海？

（Chapter 12）U.S. concerns, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund rescue package, but the money thrown into the sea?

（Chapter10）The use of Golden Ratio set to enter the market price, out of the market's bottom line. Do you have mastered this technique?

 認識五個基本的黃金分割率數值

 Five basic understanding of the value of the golden ratio

黃金分割比率數值：0.191、0.382、0.5、0.618、0.809，

可以分割為五個黃金分割點，

 Golden ratio values ; 0.191, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.809, can be divided into five golden points, 　

　

根據這個數值，從股價近期走勢中，找出最高點或最低點，作為計算基數，這樣的做法，便能找到，即將出現的支撐位置或阻力位置。

 According to this value, from the recent share price movements, find the highest or lowest point, as the calculation base, such an approach, can be found, the upcoming location of the support or resistance.

不過，要注意的是：找尋最高點與最低點的數值，是需要結合，時間運動規律來確認的。

 Note, however, is: find the highest and lowest points of value, is the need to combine the time to confirm the law of motion. 

 因為市場隨時會出現波動，有時，是時間週期首先出現，有時，是價位首先出現，兩個因素，都有可能同時出現。

 Because the market will always fluctuate, sometimes, is the time period first appeared, and sometimes, the price comes first, two factors are likely to occur simultaneously.

當時間、價格同時出現，那麼，就意味着，將會有大幅度的運行趨勢，極有可能形成，大級別的趨勢移動。

 When the time, the price simultaneously, then it means there will be substantial run trend is likely to form, the trend of moving large level.

 A. 0.382： 0.382

在黃金分割比率裡面，所代表的意義，就是在一個上升波段，回調的第一個重要支撐位置或是一個下跌波段，反彈的第一個重要壓力位置；

 Inside the golden ratio 0.382, represents the meaning is in a rising band, the first important support callback location or a drop-band, a significant rebound in the first pressure position;

我們都知道當一個趨勢在運行的過程中，是不會一口氣的直奔終點的，

 We all know that when a trend in the running process, not the straight end of the breath, 

 這種運行當中，都會有一些回調的震盪，

 This operation which will shock some of the callback, 

 而當一個趨勢在運行的時候，我們去判別這個趨勢，是否一個強勢的趨勢，就可以利用，回調幅度的大小，來做一個很有效的判斷，

 When a trend in the run, we to judge this trend is a strong trend, you can use the callback rate of size, to do a very effective judge, 

 假設，一個趨勢的波動過程中，其回調幅度，沒有跌穿0.382的位置，

 Assumptions, fluctuations in the course of a trend, the callback rate, did not fall to below 0.382 positions,

那麼就意味，這是一個強勁的趨勢，也代表這個趨勢，尚未結束，價位稍為整理後，這個趨勢，將有極大的機會，再創出新高點或新低點。

 Then it means that this is a strong trend, but also on behalf of this trend is not over yet, after finishing the price slightly, this trend will have a great opportunity for another new highs or new lows. 

 B. 0.5： 0.5在黃金分割比率裡面，所代表的意義，

 0.5 In the golden ratio which, by the meaning, 

 就是在一個上升趨勢裡面，回調的過程中，第二個重要支撐位置或是一個下跌趨勢中，反彈的第二個重要支持位置；

 There is a rising trend, the callback process, the second important support position or a down trend, the rally to support the second important position; 

 當一個趨勢，到達暫時的頂點或低點時，在這過程中，出現了回調0.5的幅度，通常表示，市場可能會出現，比較長時期的調整期，

 When a trend, reaching a temporary peak or low, in the process, the magnitude of 0.5 occurred callback, usually indicates the market may appear relatively long period of adjustment, 

 行情出現震盪的機會，短時期內，再創新高點或出現新低點的機會降低，

 Shock in market opportunities, a short time, a new high or new low-point opportunities to reduce, 

 但整體的市場運行現況，仍以原先的趨勢為主要方向。

However, the status of the overall operation of the market, the trend is still the main direction of the original.

C. 0.618： 0.618在黃金分割比率裡面，所代表的意義：

 0.618 In the golden ratio which, by the meaning,

這是在一個上升趨勢中，股票價格，回調期間，最重要阻力位置；或是一個下跌趨勢中，反彈期間，最重要支持位置；

 This is a rising trend in stock prices, during the callback, the most important resistance levels; or a decline in the rebound period, the most important support for the position; 

 若一個趨勢的運行，出現了回調0.618的幅度，

 If the operation of a trend, there has been a callback rate of 0.618, 

 代表股票市場的運行，出現反轉趨勢的可能性大增，

 Representative of the stock market run, the trend reversal, the possibility of greatly increased, 

 一旦下跌趨勢，向上突破0.618的回調幅度，或上升趨勢，向下跌破0.618的回調幅度

 Once the downward trend, break up the callback rate of 0.618, or an upward trend, the callback rate down below the 0.618 

 那麼便顯示，不論上升趨勢或下跌趨勢，正式完結。

 Then it shows an upward trend or downward trend in both the formal end.

股票市場隨著的運行，將會以全新的型態移動。

 With the stock market run, will be a new type of mobile. 

 怎樣利用，不同組合的，黃金分割比率，在股票市場裡，進行明智的交易？

How to use different combinations, the golden ratio, in the stock market, trading wisely? 

 我在這裡，提供一些意見給您。

 I am here to provide some advice to you. 

 黃金分割比率，在投資過程的運用：

 Golden ratio, the use of the investment process: 

 黃金分割比率，在眾多的技術分析工具裡面，可以算是，參考價值最高的一種，也是我個人最喜愛使用的技術分析工具，

 Golden ratio in many technical analysis tools which can be regarded as the reference value of the highest kind, but also my personal favorite use of technical analysis tools, 

 我個人認為，0.382、0.5、0.618 這三個黃金分割比率，特別重要；

 Personally, I think, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 three golden ratio, is particularly important; 

 黃金分割比率的應用、不需要設置任何工具，簡單容易使用，而且非常有效果，尤其是在計算成交量巨大的股票或指數，具有十分神奇的效果，

 Golden ratio of applications, without setting any tools, simple and easy to use and very effective, especially in large volume in the calculation of the stock or index, has a very magical effect, 

 黃金分割比率有高效果的原因，我可以解釋為：因為黃金分割比率，蘊含着宇宙間的自然定律，金融市場裡，所有的交易，都由人所促成，所以人類的交易行為，也不會跳出大自然的定律。

 Golden ratio has a high effect of reasons, I can be explained as follows: because golden ratio contains the natural laws of the universe. Financial markets, all transactions, led by the people, so the human transactions it will not jump out of the law of nature. 

 事實上，在我們的生活環境中，到處可以看見，符合黃金分割比率的生活體驗。

 In fact, in our living environment, can be seen everywhere, meet the golden ratio of life experience. 

 例如：我們到處可以看見的香煙包裝盒子、雜誌的長度和寬度比例；普通樹葉的寬度與長度之比例；蝴蝶身體長度與翅膀展開後，兩者長度的比例，也是接近0.618。

 For example: we can see everywhere, cigarette packaging boxes, magazines, the length and width ratio; ordinary leaf width and length ratio; butterfly body length, with wings expanded, the ratio between the length is close to 0.618. 

 美麗的事物如：金字塔、巴黎鐵塔，甚至所謂俊男美女的臉型，或身材，也都符合黃金分割比率，

 Beautiful things such as: Pyramids, the Eiffel Tower, even the so-called attractive men and women face, or body, are also in line with the golden ratio,

再從更玄妙的角度來看，地球上陸地的面積，和海洋面積，兩方面的比較，都接近0.618。

 More mysterious from the perspective of Earth's land area, and marine area, two aspects of the comparison, are close to 0.618 

 人們睡眠所需的時間，與日間生活所需的時間，兩者比較；人類身體的溫度和最舒適溫度的比較，都極度接近黃金分割比率0.618 

 The time required for people to sleep, and daytime life time, in comparison; human body temperature and the most comfortable temperature comparisons are extremely close to the golden ratio 0.618

學習使用黃金分割比率，很多人，無法把黃金分割比率運用得很好，主要原因是找不到正確的高點和低點，

 Learning to use the golden ratio, a lot of people cannot use the golden ratio very well, mainly due to not find the right high and low points, 

 當我們要運用黃金分割比率，分析指數時，必須採用數據的最高價位，和最低價位，在這個時候，投資者，最容易犯的兩個錯誤是：

 When we use the golden section ratio analysis index, the data must be the highest price, and the lowest position, at this time, investors most likely to commit two errors are: 

 在股價預測中，有兩種黃金分割比率的分析方法：

 In the stock price prediction, there are two golden ratio analysis methods: 

 第一種方法：找尋近期指數趨勢中，指數上升的頂端位置，或下跌的最低位置，用來計算，未來走勢的基礎，

 The first method: find the recent trend in the index, rose to the top position, or drop the lowest position, used to calculate the future movements of the foundation, 

 當股價上升時，選擇上升起點的股價，作為計算基礎，當上升趨勢，到達黃金分割比率時，股價因為受到阻力，持續上升的趨勢，可能發生逆轉。

 When the stock price rises, selects the starting point of the stock, as calculated on the basis, when the upward trend to reach the golden ratio, the stock price because of resistance, and the rising trend could be reversed. 

 當股價下跌時，選擇下跌前，最高的股價，作為計算基礎，當下跌趨勢，到達黃金分割比率時，股價因為受到支持，持續下跌的趨勢，可能發生逆轉。

 When stock prices fall, the choice fell before the highest stock price, as calculated on the basis, when the downward trend to reach the golden ratio, the share price since been supported and sustained downward trend could be reversed. 

 第二種方法：． 股價下跌趨勢，發生逆轉後，股價運行的趨勢，由下跌轉為向上攀升，當出現這種情況後，採取的辦法：． 舉例：

 The second method: Stock price decline, reversed, the trend of stock prices run from fall to rise up, when this happens, the approach taken: For example: 

  當下跌趨勢逐漸緩慢下來時，假設A股的最低價格是１０元，那麼，股價有機會逆轉攀升時，投資人可以預先計算出，各種不同的阻力價位：

  When the downward trend gradually slow down, assuming the minimum A-share price is $ 10, then have the opportunity to reverse the rise in stock prices, investors can pre-calculate a variety of different resistance levels: 

１０×（１＋１９．１％）＝１１．９

１０×（１＋３８．２％）＝１３．８

１０×（１＋50.0％）＝15

１０×（１＋６１．８％）＝１６．２

 １０×（１＋８０．９％）＝１８．１

１０×（１＋１００％）＝２０

１０×（１＋１１９．１％）＝２１．９

 然後，投資者，審視股價在市場實際變動的情形，作出對應措施。

Then, investors look at price changes in actual market situation, make the corresponding measures. 

  當上升趨勢逐漸緩慢下來時，假設B股的最高價格是30元，那麼，股價有機會逆轉下跌時，投資人可以預先計算出，各種不同的支持價位：

  When the upward trend gradually slow down, the assumption B share the maximum price is $ 30, then have the opportunity to reverse the falling stock price, investors can be calculated in advance, supported by a variety of different price points: 

 ３０×（１－１９．１％）＝２４．３

３０×（１－３８．２％）＝１８．５

３０×（１－50.0％）＝15

３０×（１－６１．８％）＝１１．５

 ３０×（１－８０．９％）＝５．７

 然後，投資者，審視股價在市場實際變動的情形，作出對應措施。

Then, investors look at price changes in actual market situation, make the corresponding measures. 

 黃金分割比率，內涵的神秘數字，由於沒有理論，作為依據，所以有人批評是迷信，是巧合，但自然界的確充滿一些奇妙的巧合，一直難以說出道理。

 Golden ratio, meaning the mysterious figure, because there is no theory as a basis, so the criticism is a superstition, is a coincidence, but nature is full of some really wonderful coincidence, has been difficult to tell truth.

神秘數字是否真的只是巧合呢？

 Mysterious figure is really just a coincidence? 

 還是，大自然一切生態，都可以用神秘數字解釋呢？

 Or, all the ecological nature can be used to explain the mysterious figure it?

這個問題只能見仁見智。

 This problem can only be a matter of opinion. 

 黃金分割比率，在金融市場上，廣泛為精明投資者採用，並且，深入研究，只是，不能太過執著而已。

 Golden ratio, in the financial markets, widely used for the smart investor, and in-depth study, but, it cannot be too persistent. 

 使用黃金分割比率，進行買賣股票，必須留意下列三大問題：

 Using the golden ratio, the sale of stock, must pay attention to the following three questions:

確定股價的出發點，即是黃金分割比率的0線位置。 

 To determine the starting price point, that is, golden ratio, the 0 line position. 

 確定找出，第二個黃金分割比率的0.382位置。

 Determine the second golden ratio of 0.382 positions. 

 運用黃金分割比率，把握進入，或退出市場的機會，進行買賣股票。

 The use of golden ratio, take into, or out of the market opportunity for buying and selling stocks.

不論在上升趨勢或下降趨勢的反彈過程中，當到達黃金分割比率0.5點的時候，您會考慮離場嗎？

 Whether the rise or decline in the rebound process, when the golden ratio to reach 0.5 point, will you consider to leave it?

為甚麼選擇黃金分割比率？

 Why, select the golden ratio? 

 在股票市場投資，是投資未來的行為，預測趨勢，在股市買、賣過程中的重要性，不言而喻。

 Invest in the stock market, is investing in the future behavior, predict trends in the stock market to buy, sell the importance of the process, self-evident.

黃金分割比率，具備有極頑強的自然屬性。

 Golden ratio, with a very tenacious natural attributes. 

 人體的臉部上，假如從一個人兩眉之間的中間線，一直測量至下巴位置，其間的長度基本上，大約是整個臉部長度的0.618位置；

 On the human face, if a person from between the two eyebrows, the middle line, has been measured to, chin position, during which the length of, basically, about the length of the face, the location of 0.618; 

 從一個人乳房之間，的中間線，一直測量到腳跟的長度，基本上約為整個人，身高的0.618位置；

 From the breast of a person between the median lines, the length of the heel has been measured, basically about the whole person, height 0.618 position;

向日葵花有89個花瓣，55個朝一方，34個朝向另一方，它們彼此之間，存在下列比例關係：

 34/55=0.618，89/55=1.618，89/34=2.618。

 Sunflower has 89 petals, 55 toward the side, 34 toward the other, between them, there is the following proportional relationship:

34/55 = 0.618,89 / 55 = 1.618,89 / 34 = 2.618. 

 可以這麼說，黃金分割比率，是世界事物運動，永恆的轉捩點，萬事萬物，只有在這些位置有轉折點，事物的運行，才會變得和諧，才會持續永遠。

 It can be said, golden ratio, is the world movement of things, the eternal turning point, all things, there are only a turning point in these locations, things to run, will become harmonious, will continue forever. 

 黃金分割比率，是人們深層潛意識裡的客觀規律。

 Golden ratio, is that people subconsciously, of the objective laws.

金融市場裡，最基本的規律，是高點、低點，互相交替，沒有永遠的上升的股票市場，也沒有永遠的下降的金融市場，股票市場，經常在價格的高點和價格的低點之間運行。

 Financial markets, the basic rule is high, low, alternating with each other, not always the rising stock market, and no permanent decline in the financial markets, stock market, often in the high price point and low prices between the run. 

 那些懂得運用，黃金分割比率的投資者，便經常能在短線買賣中，賺取金錢。

 Those who know how to use the golden ratio, the investor will often be able, in the short-term trading to earn money. 

 使用黃金分割比率：進行金融，投資，買賣，的基本法則：

 Using the golden ratio: the financial, investment, trading, and the basic rule: 

 黃金分割比率0.618，符合自然界的和諧法則，運用於股票買賣的投資上，準確性很令人滿意：

 Golden ratio 0.618, in line with nature, harmony rules, used in stock trading, investment, and accuracy is very satisfactory: 

 指數由從高位下落，不能到達0．618線段附近，不要作為黃金分割比率線段的起點。 

 Index falling from a high level, cannot reach the line near 0.618, not as the golden ratio line, the starting point. 

 指數在下降趨勢中，回調向上升的情況：

 Downward trend in the index, to rise in the callback: 

 以階段性的低點(1.000)，作為黃金分割線，可以分為：1.191、1.382、1.500、1.618、1.809五線段，

 With low stage (1.000), as golden line, can be divided into: 1.191, 1.382, 1.500, 1.618, 1.809 five segments, 

 每一條線段的位置，就是阻力位，一般只要有交易行情，每一股票上升時都會衝破1.191，到達1.382線段，

 The location of each segment is resistance, in general, as long as the transaction price, each stock will rise to break through 119.1, to reach 1.382 lines,

部分強勢股票，會上升到1.618線段上，甚至上升到1.809線段，不過，只有極少數股票，能夠突破1.809線段，甚至攀升更高點。

 Part of a strong stock will rise to 1.618 on the line, even up to 1.809 line, however, only a very small number of stocks that can break through the 1.809 line, and even climbed higher point. 

 我覺得根據黃金分割比率，在金融市場，進行買賣，比較安全。

 I think under the golden ratio, in the financial markets, traded, relatively safe. 

 使用黃金分割比率進行股票交易，五項必須遵守的買賣法則：

Using the golden ratio for stock trading, the sale of five rules must be observed: 

 耐心持有，等待突破：

 Patient holding, waiting for a breakthrough: 

 在1.191線段附近，進入市場購買股票是最安全的，因為這是股票價格的整固期間，在此價位內，應該耐心持有。

 119.1 lines in the vicinity of the market, buying stocks, is the safest, because this is the stock price, the consolidation period, at this price point, the patient should be held.

第一步黃金分割比率線段，是股票價格的整固時期。當價格突破1.191線段，便會上升到1.382線段，這時候便要及早沽出。

 The first step golden ratio line, the stock price consolidation period. When prices break through the 119.1 section of line will be increased to 1.382, this time we have to sell as soon as possible. 

 否則，價格便會很快回落，這是首次的上升浪，應該把握機會出售，當價格重新回到1.191線段附近時，您一定要買回來。

 Otherwise, the price will soon fall, this is the first rise in waves, should grasp the opportunity to sell when prices returned to near 119.1 line, you have to buy back. 

 價高拋售，價低吸納，採取差價買賣策略： 

 Price rise, sell, prices fall to absorb, to take the difference trading strategies: 

 價格徘徊在1.191—1.382區域，可作差價買賣，高拋低吸，不必害怕，

 Prices hovering in the 1.191-1.382 region, the difference can be used for sale, buy low sell high, do not be afraid, 

 價格在此區域，一般不會把投資者套住，因為股票莊家獲得的利益，不是很大，在目前價格升降不定的過程中，莊家也會利用，價格高時出售、價錢低落時買入，目的是降低持有股票的成本，

 Prices in this area, investors generally will not trap, because the gain from stock dealer, not great, in the current volatile price movements, of course, the dealer will use, sell when prices are high, buy when the price is low the purpose is to reduce the cost of holding stocks, 

 在這階段，對自己熟悉的股票，要多利用機會，進行買賣，也要敢於作差價買賣。

 At this stage, the familiar stock, make more use of opportunities to trade, but also the courage to make the difference trading. 

 1.382線段是強大阻力位，所以會有很長時間的浮動，如果出現顯著跡象，向上突破，股價就很難再下跌，跌破1.382線，

 1.382 is a strong resistance line, so there will be a long time floating, if there is a significant sign of the break up, the stock may be hard to fall below the 1.382 line, 

 投資者，賣出股票最佳時機是在：1.191線段+(1.382線段-1.191 線段)*0.618線段的情況下，暫時離場。

 Investors, the best time to sell in stock is: 119.1 line + (1.382 -1.191 line segments) * 0.618 line, in this case, a temporary leave.

如果要進入市場交易，加倍小心： 

If you want to enter the market transaction, be cautious:

在1.382—1.618線段，可以繼續進行股票買賣，不過，要冒風險，應加倍小心。

 In the 1.382-1.618 line, you can continue trading, however, to take risks, be cautious.

每當持有的股票，到達以下價位時，應該及時賣出：1.382線段+(1．618線段-1.382線段)*0.618。

 Stocks, when the price reaches the following should be sold in time: 1.382 line + (1.618 -1.382 line segments) * 0.618. 

 從高位下跌的股票，不要在1．809價位，期望會繼續反彈，

 The stock fell from a high level, not to 1.809 price, expect to continue to rebound, 

 反而要在1.618的價位，開始計算，漲幅有10%利潤，必須及時離場，不要戀戀不捨。

 Instead, the price to 1.618 begins, or 10% of profits, we must promptly leave, not reluctantly.

當股票價格高企時，不要購進股票：

 When stock prices are high, do not purchase stock: 

 股票價格在1.618線段以上的股票，意味著從低位，已經上漲了62%，

 Stock price above the stock line at 1.618, which means from the low, has risen 62%, 　　　

市場如果沒有特別利好消息，切勿購買位於1.618線段，附近的股票。股價在該線段附近，浮動越持久，股票公司的代理人，賣出股票的機會率越大。讀者們必須加倍小心。

 Market, if not particularly good news, not to buy in the 1.618 line, near the stock. Stock in the vicinity of the line, the more durable the floating stock agent of the company, the greater the chance of selling the stock. Readers must be especially careful. 

 大贏特贏：． Special win big win : 

 價格位於1.809線段以上的股票，賺錢的機會，無可限量，

 Line at 1.809 above the price of the stock, money-making opportunities, limitless, 

 這階段的股票價格，有兩倍上漲的機會，例如：1.809線段的價格是$7．98，突破後有機會上升到$16．00附近，這時候，已經不要理會，黃金分割比率的使用。

 This phase of the stock price, have the opportunity to double up, for example: 1.809 line price is $ 7.98, after the break near the organic rise to $ 16.00, this time, has been to ignore, use the golden ratio. 

 怎樣計算黃金分割比率：

 How to calculate the golden ratio: 

  1.618減去基數1，得0．618，1再減去0．618得0．382。

 1.618 minus the base 1 was 0.618,1 minus 0.618 was 0.382. 

 黃金分割比率，在個別股票當中，應用的方式有：

 Golden ratio, which in individual stocks, the application of the method is: 

 A 有一些分析人員的觀點認為是：

 Some analysts view that is: ． 直接從趨勢的低點，加上

（1）0．382倍、

（2）0．618倍、

（3）1．382倍、

（4）1．618倍。

作為其上升趨勢的阻力點。

 Lows directly from the trend, coupled with

 (1) 0.382-fold,

(2) 0.618-fold,

(3) 1.382-fold,

(4) 1.618-fold.

Take its upward trend as the resistance point. 

 或者，直接從趨勢的最高點減去0．382倍及0．618倍，作為其下跌的支持點。

 Or directly from the highest point of the trend minus 0.382 times and 0.618 times, as Part of its support points down. 

 B 有一些分析人員的觀點認為是：

 Some analysts view that is: 

 不應該以趨勢的最高點或最低點，作為其計算基礎。應該以上一次趨勢的上升或下跌的百分率，作為計算基礎。

 Trend should not be the highest point or lowest point, as the basis. Trends should be morethan a percentage increase or decrease, as the basis. 

 黃金分割比率的支持點，可以使用下列公式計算：

 Golden ratio of the support points, you can use the following formula: 

 a 某一段趨勢，阻力的最高支持點 = 某一段趨勢的終點 －（某一段趨勢的終點 － 某一段趨勢的最低點） 0．382。

（a） A period of trend, the highest support point resistance = The end of a period of trend － (The end of a period of trend － a trend the lowest point of ) 0.382. 

 b 某一段趨勢，支持的最低支持點 = 某一段趨勢的終點 －（某一段趨勢的終點 － 某一段趨勢的最低點） 0．618

（b）A period of trend, the lowest support point of support = The end of a period of trend －(The end of a period of trend - a trend the lowest point of ) 0.618

計算實際價格：可用下列公式計算 ：

 Calculate the actual price: available to the following formula: 

 前一階段趨勢的最低點（或最高點）=（前一階段趨勢的最高點 － 現在趨勢的上升點） 1．382（或1．618） 

 The lowest point of the previous stage trends (or the highest point) = (The highest point of the trend of the previous stage - now rising trend points) 1.382 (or 1.618)

個案舉例：． Case example: ． 托普軟體（000583）：我們根據股票的走勢，使用黃金分割比率的原則：

 TOP Software (000 583): Based on the trend of the stock, using the golden ratio principle:

1999年3月份，股票價格從$14．31，開始上升，直到6月底，價格上升到$34．31，完成這一階段的升勢，讓我們來看看，股票的支持價位：

 March 1999, the stock price from $ 14.31, start to rise until the end of June, the price rose to $ 34.31, to complete this phase of the rally, let's take a look at the support the stock price:

根據公式：． 下跌低點支持位置 = 34．31－（34．31－14．35）× 0．618=$22

According to the formula: down low to support position = 34．31－（34．31－14．35）× 0．618=$22

事實上，股票（000583）由1999年11月份，下跌的支持最低點為$22．48，誤差極小，投資者，只要在$22價格附近，進行吸納，就可以找到獲利機會。

 Indeed, the stock (000,583) by November 1999, down to the lowest point of supportis $ 22.48, the error is extremely small, investors, as long as prices near $ 22, to absorb, you can find profit opportunities. 

 進行買賣的目標價位，也可通過公式計算：

 Target price to trade can also be calculated by the formula:

上升趨勢，上升阻力點=21．97+（34．31－21．97）× 1．618=$42 

 Upward trend, rising resistance point = 21.97 + (34.31-21.97) × 1.618 = $ 42 

 股票（000583）由2000年2月份開始，一直上升到$45，投資者，在$42的時候，可以從容賣出股票，獲取盈利。 

 Stock (000,583) by February 2000, has been increased to $ 45, investors in the $ 42 they can comfortably sell the stock, for profits.

上述股票的趨勢，可以說明，學習黃金分割比率，只要掌握透徹，可以成功利用它，賺取金錢。

 The trend of the stock, can explain, to learn the golden ratio, once you have a thorough, can successfully use it to earn money.

使用黃金分割比率，進入金融市場，當進行買賣時，要注意下列守則：

 Using the golden ratio, access to financial markets, when to trade, we should note the following guidelines:  　　

a 進入市場的購買點，在下跌趨勢過程中，當價位到達0．618位置時，進入市場購買，比較安全。對於進攻型投資者而言，當價格下跌到達0．382位置時，選擇進入市場購買，也未常不可。

（a）Point of purchase to enter the market, the downward trend in the process, when the price reaches 0.618 positions, to enter the market to buy, relatively safe. For aggressive investors, when prices reached 0.382 positions, choose to enter the market to buy, nor does it often is not. 

 穩健型投資者：還是選擇，下跌趨勢到達0．618位置時，進行買入股票。

 Steady investors: or choose, the downward trend to reach 0.618 positions, to buy stocks. 

 b進入市場的購買點，在股票價格趨勢上升過程中，當股票價格上升到1．382位置時，只要趨勢保持上升，可以選擇，到達1．618位置時，把股票出售，獲取利潤。

 Point of purchase to enter the market, the trend in stock prices rising process, whenthe stock price rises to 1.382 location, as long as the trend to keep rising, you can choose to reach the 1.618 position, the stock sold for profit.